In the loop 17 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.18/$, after closing unchanged yesterday (R16.19/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.1%), CLP (+0.8%) and PLN (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.6%), ARS (-0.5%) and MYR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: the US and Iran are preparing for a formal signing of a peace agreement in Switzerland on 19 June.
A full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected following the signing, when remaining restrictions (including security measures like de-mining) are scheduled to be addressed.

Central bank watch: the US Fed FOMC will meet today to decide on rates and is expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged.
Investors will keep an eye on the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference after the meeting.
It's likely that he will avoid providing explicit guidance on the policy path.
The Swedish Riksbank is also expected to keep interest rates on hold today.

The BOJ yesterday increased its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, to 1.0%, marking the highest interest rate level in Japan since 1995 and the first increase since December 2025.
The decision reflected the BOJ's growing concern that higher energy prices, a weak yen and broader price pressures could lead to more persistent inflation.
Policymakers noted that the risk of inflation overshooting their objective now outweighs the risk of a significant economic slowdown.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane yesterday indicated that the ECB might raise interest rates again despite reports of a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran.
While energy prices have retreated following the announcement, Lane noted that they remain above pre-war levels and said he would not rule out a further increase in the ECB's key policy rate.
He added that the proposed peace deal is unlikely to materially reduce Eurozone inflation over the remainder of this year, with price growth expected to stay above the ECB's 2% target.
The ECB last week raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
The decision that was taken before the US and Iran announced on Sunday that they had reached an interim peace agreement, to be signed on 19 June.

Eurozone CPI of May (final estimate) is on the cards on today and likely to come in at 3.2% y/y in May, from 3.0% y/y in April.
On m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.1% in May, from 1.0% in April
UK CPI for May, also scheduled for release, is expected to have increased to 3.0% y/y in May, from a 2.8% y/y increase April.
On m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.4% in May, from 0.7% in April.

Locally, the May CPI is due and is expected at 4.7% y/y, from 4.0% y/y in April.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.8%, after having increased by 1.1% m/m in April.
Core CPI is projected at 3.9% y/y in May, from 3.6% y/y in April.
April retail sales are expected to reflect growth of 2.0% y/y, down from a 2.6% y/y increase in March.

Brent crude oil is currently at $78.30/bbl; ($78.96/bbl*).
Gold is at $4327/oz ($4331/oz*).
SA CDS 121bps*, Brazil 122bps* and Turkey 217bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.43%*, German bund at 2.93%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.51%**, SA's R2035 at 8.33%**.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

* Denotes Monday's close.

Key events and data:

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