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In the loop 28 October 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.71/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.66/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MYR (+0.1%), ZAR (+0.1%) and TWD (+0.1%) are the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.1%), PHP (-0.8%) and MXN (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Bank of Japan will meet on Thursday and is expected to hold rates steady.
 
  • China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for October, due out on Thursday, will likely have been distorted by the holidays during the month.
  • Japan’s industrial production for September, out on Thursday, is expected to have rebounded. 
  • CPI data for Australia, Indonesia and Pakistan this week will probably show inflation having slowed.
 
  • The British Budget will be tabled on Wednesday by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.
  • Eurozone GDP for Q3:24 is due out on Wednesday and is expected to show that the region’s economy grew by 0.2% q/q, matching Q2:24’s growth.
  • Germany is likely to remain the weakest link amongst the Eurozone economies.
  • Eurozone CPI for October, due on Wednesday, is likely to come in at 1.9% y/y, from 1.8% y/y in September.
  • Receding base effects will likely put upward pressure on CPI for the remainder of this year.
  • The UK Nationwide house price index for October, scheduled for release on Friday, likely increased by 2.8% y/y, from 3.2% y/y in September.
 
  • The US Conference Board consumer confidence index for October is due out tomorrow; the index is likely to have increased to 99.3 in October, from 98.7 in September.
  • The US Q3:24 GDP, out on Wednesday, is expected to come in at 3.0% q/q (annualised) in Q3:24, from 3.0% q/q (annualised) in Q2:24.
  • The Fed will keep an eye on the core PCE deflator, scheduled for release on Thursday, which is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in September, following a 0.1% m/m increase in August.
  • The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for September, scheduled for release tomorrow, are likely to have fallen further.
  • The September JOLTS print should slow down to 7.935 million, from 8.040 million in August.
  • Non-farm payrolls (NFP) for October, in the spotlight on Friday, are expected to have increased, by 110k, following an increase of 254k in September.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%, in September. 
  • The US ISM manufacturing index for October is due out on Friday. 
 
  • Locally, the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) is in the spotlight this week and will be tabled in parliament on Wednesday.
  • The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for September are due out tomorrow. 
  • PSCE is likely to come in at 4.02% y/y in September, from 4.95% y/y in August.
  • The monthly Budget balance data for September is also on the cards on Wednesday; the budget deficit came in at R19.4bn in August.
  • The September trade balance is scheduled for release on Thursday; a trade surplus of R7.1bn is expected, from R5.6bn in August.
  • The September PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected at 1.2% y/y, from 2.8% y/y in August.
  • The BER manufacturing PMI for October is due for release on Friday; the index is expected to have slipped to 51.0 in October, from 52.8 in September.
  • The October Naamsa vehicle sales also due on Friday; vehicle sales declined by 4.1% y/y in September.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 5.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 32.6% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $72.62/bbl; ($76.05/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2735/oz ($2747/oz*).
  • SA CDS 186bps*, Brazil 156bps* and Turkey 272bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.23%*, German bund at 2.29%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.41%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.47%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 16h30: US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index (October)
 

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