In the loop
Shireen Darmalingam
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.71/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.66/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MYR (+0.1%), ZAR (+0.1%) and TWD (+0.1%) are the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.1%), PHP (-0.8%) and MXN (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
- Central bank watch: the Bank of Japan will meet on Thursday and is expected to hold rates steady.
- China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for October, due out on Thursday, will likely have been distorted by the holidays during the month.
- Japan’s industrial production for September, out on Thursday, is expected to have rebounded.
- CPI data for Australia, Indonesia and Pakistan this week will probably show inflation having slowed.
- The British Budget will be tabled on Wednesday by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.
- Eurozone GDP for Q3:24 is due out on Wednesday and is expected to show that the region’s economy grew by 0.2% q/q, matching Q2:24’s growth.
- Germany is likely to remain the weakest link amongst the Eurozone economies.
- Eurozone CPI for October, due on Wednesday, is likely to come in at 1.9% y/y, from 1.8% y/y in September.
- Receding base effects will likely put upward pressure on CPI for the remainder of this year.
- The UK Nationwide house price index for October, scheduled for release on Friday, likely increased by 2.8% y/y, from 3.2% y/y in September.
- The US Conference Board consumer confidence index for October is due out tomorrow; the index is likely to have increased to 99.3 in October, from 98.7 in September.
- The US Q3:24 GDP, out on Wednesday, is expected to come in at 3.0% q/q (annualised) in Q3:24, from 3.0% q/q (annualised) in Q2:24.
- The Fed will keep an eye on the core PCE deflator, scheduled for release on Thursday, which is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in September, following a 0.1% m/m increase in August.
- The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for September, scheduled for release tomorrow, are likely to have fallen further.
- The September JOLTS print should slow down to 7.935 million, from 8.040 million in August.
- Non-farm payrolls (NFP) for October, in the spotlight on Friday, are expected to have increased, by 110k, following an increase of 254k in September.
- The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%, in September.
- The US ISM manufacturing index for October is due out on Friday.
- Locally, the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) is in the spotlight this week and will be tabled in parliament on Wednesday.
- The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for September are due out tomorrow.
- PSCE is likely to come in at 4.02% y/y in September, from 4.95% y/y in August.
- The monthly Budget balance data for September is also on the cards on Wednesday; the budget deficit came in at R19.4bn in August.
- The September trade balance is scheduled for release on Thursday; a trade surplus of R7.1bn is expected, from R5.6bn in August.
- The September PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected at 1.2% y/y, from 2.8% y/y in August.
- The BER manufacturing PMI for October is due for release on Friday; the index is expected to have slipped to 51.0 in October, from 52.8 in September.
- The October Naamsa vehicle sales also due on Friday; vehicle sales declined by 4.1% y/y in September.
- Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 5.7% year-to-date.
- The gold price is down this morning, and up by 32.6% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $72.62/bbl; ($76.05/bbl*).
- Gold is at $2735/oz ($2747/oz*).
- SA CDS 186bps*, Brazil 156bps* and Turkey 272bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 4.23%*, German bund at 2.29%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.41%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.47%*.
* Denotes yesterday’s close.
Key events and data:
- 16h30: US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index (October)
Read PDF