Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities Enablement Lab
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
South Africa FX 03 July 2026

FX Monthly Chart Book

Shireen Darmalingam

  • In June 2026, the rand was quite volatile though traded in a relatively narrow range around the mid-R16/$ levels, but ultimately posted a modest depreciation over the month, by roughly 1% against the US dollar; it gained 1,1% against the euro and 0,5% against the pound. The currency began the month on a firmer footing, supported by improved global risk appetite, a softer US dollar environment earlier in the year, and continued investor demand for higher-yielding emerging market assets alongside still favourable terms of trade and capital inflows. The range (R16.13/$ – R16.71/$) reflected the balance between supportive fundamentals and persistent global risks. The COP, PHP, INR and PEN were among the best performing EM currencies, while the RUB, ARS, PLN, CLP and MYR were among the worst performing EM currencies.
  • A tighter monetary policy stance by the SARB continued to support investor confidence and anchor inflation expectations, helping the rand remain relatively resilient compared with its emerging market peers. Commodity prices also provided a supportive backdrop, with elevated prices for several of South Africa's key exports bolstering the trade balance and supporting foreign exchange inflows. These favourable factors were, however, offset by several headwinds during June. Persistent uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East periodically triggered risk-off sentiment, boosting demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and contributing to bouts of rand weakness.
  • Geopolitical developments also fuelled volatility in oil markets, with concerns over potential supply disruptions pushing prices higher at times. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement reached in the second half of June ultimately provided relief to global uncertainty and oil markets. However, the tailwind for SA from easing oil prices was counteracted by a decline in key export commodity prices.
  • Meanwhile, expectations that the US Fed could maintain a more hawkish policy stance, together with a stronger US dollar, weighed on emerging market currencies, including the rand, by preserving the yield advantage of US assets. Intermittent weakness in commodity prices and persistent domestic structural challenges further limited the currency's scope for sustained appreciation in June.
  • Looking ahead, the rand is likely to remain heavily influenced by external factors, particularly global risk sentiment, commodity price trends, and expectations for US monetary policy. Continued capital flows into emerging markets and supportive commodity prices should provide some underpinning for the rand. However, risks remain tilted to the downside should geopolitical tensions escalate, oil prices rise sharply, or the Fed adopt a more hawkish stance than currently anticipated. As a result, the rand is expected to remain sensitive to global developments, with periods of volatility likely, even though its broader underlying tone remains constructive.
  • We see the rand ending the year at R16.20/$, and R16.55/$ by the end of 2027.
 

Read PDF