In the loop 04 May 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.60/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.64/$*).
EM currencies were largely up on Friday; the ZAR (+0.4%), HUF (+0.4%) and MXN (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the RON lost 0.2%.
Asian equity markets the Hang Seng is up.

Iran war: Iran formally presented a 14-point, three-phase proposal calling for a complete end to the war within 30 days.
It included mutual non-aggression guarantees, the lifting of the US naval blockade, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, it deferred substantive discussions on its nuclear programme to a later stage.
US President Trump publicly rejected the proposal as “unacceptable,” warning that renewed military action remained possible if Iran “misbehaved”, even as official hostilities have been paused under an extended ceasefire.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike its cash rate by 25 bps, to 4.35%, tomorrow.
The RBA is expected to signal further tightening in the coming months.
Sweden's Riksbank is expected to keep its policy rate on hold on Thursday.
The central bank may signal a pause as it weighs up softer growth against upside inflation risks.
Bank Negara Malaysia is largely expected to leave its overnight policy rate unchanged, at 2.75%, on Thursday.

The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for May is scheduled for release later today; the index is expected to have deteriorated further in May, to -22.0, from -19.2 in April.
PPI for March is on the cards on Wednesday and is likely to come in at 1.8% y/y, after having declined by 3.0% y/y in February.
Retail sales data for March, due out on Thursday, is expected to have declined.

The US ISM services PMI for April is due out tomorrow and is likely to have slipped to 53.7, from 54.0 in March.
New home sales for March, also due out on Tuesday, likely rebounded in February and March (data will be released for both months), after falling in January.
The JOLTS job openings data for March, due for release tomorrow, was likely little changed.
The non-farm payrolls for April are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 65k, after having increased by 178k in March.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.3%.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, due on Friday, is likely to have remained below 50 as uncertainty related to the war with Iran persists.
Sentiment and inflation expectations are likely to remain divided along political lines.

Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for April is due for release today; the index increased to 48.0 in March, from 47.4 in February.
The April Naamsa vehicle sales are also on the cards today; vehicle sales increased by 17.3% y/y in March.
The industry-wide PMI for April is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently in expansionary territort, at 50.8.
Electricity production and consumption for March are due for release on Thursday.
The SARB's gross and net reserves for April are scheduled for release on Friday.
Gross reserves were at $77.76bn in March, and net reserves $73.19bn.

Brent crude oil is currently at $106.90/bbl; ($108.17/bbl*).
Gold is at $4595/oz ($4614/oz*).
SA CDS 154bps**, Brazil 118bps* and Turkey 244bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.36%*, German bund at 3.03%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.93%**, SA's R2035 at 8.78%**.

* Denotes Friday's close.

** Denotes Thursday's close.

Key events and data:

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