In the loop 24 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.95/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.78/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+2.6%), HUF (+1.8%) and BRL (+1.5%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.7%), TWD (-0.4%) and PHP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: US President Trump stated yesterday that negotiations with Iran are underway and announced a temporary pause in some planned strikes to allow talks to progress.
However, Iranian officials firmly rejected these claims, calling them “fake” and insisting that no meaningful negotiations are taking place under current conditions.
This disconnect highlights a lack of alignment that limits near-term prospects for a ceasefire.
Oil prices rose again yesterday as Iran denied talks and supply risks re-emerged, with Brent crude moving back above $100/bbl.

ECB Governing Council Dimitar Radev stated yesterday that the central bank stands ready to respond to inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran conflict.
He noted emerging signs of second-round effects and emphasised that policy decisions would remain data-dependent.
Radev stressed that, while the ECB is prepared to act decisively if needed, its approach will remain measured.
He also highlighted the rapidly evolving nature of the situation.
Further, he added that the balance of risks is shifting amid heightened geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices.

Eurozone consumer confidence index deteriorated sharply in March as the escalation in the Middle East drove energy prices higher and intensified pressure on household finances.
The index dropped to -16.3, its lowest level since October 2023, down from -12.3 in February.
Surging energy costs are increasingly being passed on to consumers, fuelling inflation concerns, eroding real incomes, and weighing on spending.

The Eurozone and UK PMI data releases for March are due out today.
The Eurozone composite PMI survey for March will likely show that the region's economy continued to expand in Q1:26.
The composite index, however, is expected to have slipped to 51.0 in March, from 51.9 in February.
The manufacturing index is likely to have fallen into contraction, to 49.6 in March, from 50.8 in February, while the services index is expected to have remained in expansion.
The UK composite, manufacturing and services indices are likely to have slipped in March.
The composite index is seen slipping to 52.8 in March, from 53.7 in February.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee yesterday commented that he could “see circumstances” in which the Fed might need to raise interest rates, depending on how economic conditions evolve.
He noted that, while the Fed could just as easily return to an environment of multiple rate cuts if inflation behaves, policymakers must remain open to the possibility that inflation could move “the wrong way”.
This scenario would require tighter monetary policy.
Goolsbee added that the economy currently appears closer to full employment than to the Fed's inflation target, suggesting that inflation risks should carry slightly more weight in current decision making.

The US PMI data for March are also due out today.
The services PMI is expected to have improved to 52.0 in March, from 51.7 in February; the manufacturing PMI is expected to have slipped, albeit marginally, to 51.3, from 51.6 in February.

Locally, the SARB leading indicator for January is due for release today; the leading indicator increased to 117.2 in December, from 118.4 in November.
The largest negative contributors were a deceleration in the 6-month smoothed growth rate in real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved.
The largest positive contributors were accelerations in the 6-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold and the SA USD-denominated export commodity price index.
The coincident indicator, which measures current economic conditions, decreased to 95.7 in November, from 95.9 in October.
The Q1:26 BER consumer confidence index is also on the cards today; the index improved to -9 in Q4:25, from -13 in Q3:25.

Brent crude oil is currently at $103.67/bbl; ($99.94/bbl*).
Gold is at $4337/oz ($4407/oz*).
SA CDS 198bps*, Brazil 140bps* and Turkey 293bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.37%*, German bund at 3.00%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.99%*, SA's R2035 at 8.86%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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