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In the loop 30 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.46/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.42/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.7%), MYR (+0.4%) and INR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.4%), ARS (-0.3%) and INR (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while Hang Seng is down.
 
  • Iran war: Iran has reaffirmed its intention to retain control over shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • While Tehran plans to send a delegation to Doha, it has stressed that no direct discussions with US officials are currently scheduled.
 
  • ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, focused on the theme of “Shaping Europe's future: innovation, growth and stability”.
  • Participants discussed the challenges facing the global economy in an era of higher inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.
  • Discussions centred on the role of technology diffusion, investment and structural reforms in supporting long-term growth while preserving financial and price stability. 
  • Participants also examined the implications of artificial intelligence for productivity and financial systems.  
 
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday warned that the Eurozone is likely to face more frequent geopolitical disruptions in the years ahead.
  • She noted, however, that the region's growing resilience leaves it better equipped to deal with them. 
  • She highlighted that the ECB has had to respond repeatedly to major global shocks in recent years, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the wars, as these events threatened its objective of maintaining price stability. 
  • Lagarde added that the ECB is operating in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape where major shocks are becoming more common and are evolving in nature.
  • She noted that access to markets, energy supplies and critical minerals are increasingly being used as geopolitical tools.
 
  • The US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for April is due for release today and is expected to show a slight improvement in house price growth.
  • This is expected even as affordability pressures continued to weigh on demand. 
  • FHFA house prices are likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m in April, following a 0.1% m/m increase in March.
  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June will also be published.
  • The consumer sentiment index is likely to have increased to 94.4 in June, from 93.1 in May. 
  • The JOLTS job openings data for May likely slipped to 7.296 million in May, from 7.618 million in April.
 
  • Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for May are scheduled for release today.
  • PSCE is expected to have increased by 9.1% y/y in May, down from 9.2% y/y in April. 
  • The May trade balance is also due for release; the trade surplus is expected to have compressed to R12.8bn in May, from a surplus of R15.2bn in April. 
  • The monthly budget balance is likely to come in at a deficit of R16.5bn in May, from a deficit of R63.6bn in April.
  • The BER will also release the Q2:26 inflation expectations today.
  • Stats SA releases the non-farm payroll for Q1:26 today; non-farm payrolls increased by 0.2% q/q in Q4:25.
  • The SARB's June Quarterly Bulletin is also scheduled for release today.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 18.8% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and down by 7.9% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $72.26/bbl; ($73.15/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3983/oz ($4015/oz*).
  • SA CDS 124bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 220bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.37%*, German bund at 2.85%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.37%*, SA's R2035 at 8.19%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: UK GDP (Q1:26 – final)
  • 08h00: SA M3 money supply and PSCE (May)
  • 07h00: UK housing starts (May)
  • 09h00: SA BER inflation expectations (Q2:26)
  • 10h00: SA SARB Quarterly Bulletin (June)
  • 11h30: SA non-farm payrolls (Q1:26)
  • 14h00: SA trade balance (May), monthly budget balance (May)
  • 15h00: US FHFA house price index (April), S&P Cotality house price index (April)
  • 16h00: US Conference Board consumer confidence index (June), JOLTS job openings (May)
 

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