In the loop 28 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.00/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R15.99/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the TWD (+0.4%), KRW (+0.2%) and ARS (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.9%), COP (-0.8%) and HUF (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: despite diplomatic activity, direct US-Iran negotiations remained stalled.
President Trump indicated that Washington was continuing its economic pressure campaign and was in no rush to resume formal talks, while Tehran continued to deny that meaningful direct negotiations were taking place.
Nevertheless, both sides appeared intent on avoiding a return to large-scale military confrontation.

The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for August (final estimate) is due out today; sentiment is likely to have remained unchanged, at -15.5 in August, from the previous estimate, and from -15.9 in July.
Economic confidence is expected to have increased to 97.6 in August, from 96.9 in July.

The focus in the US today will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the annual gathering of global central bankers.
Warsh's Jackson Hole address could provide a clearer indication of how the Fed views the balance between persistent inflation and the broader economic outlook.
Markets will be looking for clues on when policymakers may be prepared to adjust rates in response to inflation, although Warsh has stressed that he does not want to provide explicit forward guidance.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid yesterday noted that US monetary policy is not currently restrictive and that interest rates remain too accommodative given the strength of economic demand and inflation pressures.
He stressed that the Fed has not yet achieved its 2% inflation objective and cautioned against assuming that recent inflation impulses will dissipate on their own.
Schmid pointed to strong AI-related investment and commodity demand as evidence that monetary policy is not sufficiently restraining the economy.
He also indicated that he would have supported the hawkish arguments raised by dissenters at the Fed's July meeting, warning that delaying action could ultimately require more aggressive tightening later.
His remarks reinforced a hawkish stance, suggesting that the Fed may need to maintain, or even increase, policy restraint if inflation remains above target and underlying demand conditions continue to support price pressures.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee commented that the growing political pressure being placed on the Fed “puts him on edge”.
He warned that interference in central bank decision-making risks undermining the institution's credibility and effectiveness.
Goolsbee argued that history shows that political interference in central banks often leads to higher inflation as policymakers become pushed to prioritize short-term political goals over price stability.
Goolsbee stressed that maintaining the Fed's independence is essential in keeping inflation under control and preserving confidence in monetary policy.

The US University of Michigan consumer index for August (final estimate), due for release today, is expected to come in at 51.4 in August, from 55.2 in July.
Consumers remain concerned about the inflation outlook and borrowing costs.

Locally, the monthly budget balance for July is scheduled for release today.

Brent crude oil is currently at $89.39/bbl; ($89.70/bbl*).
Gold is at $4584/oz ($4599/oz*).
SA CDS 115bps*, Brazil 118bps* and Turkey 219bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.67%*, German bund at 3.25%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.65%*, SA's R2035 at 8.44%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

11h00: Eurozone economic and consumer confidence (August)
14h00: SA monthly budget balance (July)
16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (August – final)

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