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In the loop 12 November 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.61/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.59/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.7%), KRW (+0.5%) and BRL (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the PLN (-1.4%), THB (-1.2%) and CZK (-1.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: while developments imply this conflict as moving further towards a diplomatic phase, the sequencing of concessions, Iran's nuclear programme and security arrangements around the Strait of Hormuz remain major obstacles to a durable settlement.
 
  • ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf yesterday urged patience on further interest rate decisions.
  • He argued that mixed economic signals warrant waiting for additional data and the ECB's December economic projections. 
  • While the impact of the ECB's two interest rate hikes is still filtering through the economy and financing conditions have tightened amid rising government bond yields, upside risks to inflation persist.
  • Makhlouf noted that price pressures remain largely concentrated in energy, while wage growth is contained and inflation expectations remain anchored. 
  • However, he cautioned that indirect inflationary effects could take time to filter through supply chains, contributing to a projected rise in inflation in early 2027.
 
  • BOE policymaker Megan Greene warned that persistently elevated wage growth implies that there is less slack in the UK labour market than previously thought, strengthening the case for further monetary policy tightening.
  • Greene commented that forward-looking indicators imply that wage growth may stabilise at or above 3.5% over the coming year, exceeding levels consistent with the BOE's inflation target. 
  • She cautioned that labour market slack might have already peaked, increasing the risk of wage growth remaining elevated and businesses passing higher labour costs on to consumers. 
  • Greene argued that proactive monetary policy tightening is warranted to contain persistent inflationary pressures.
 
  • The UK housing market weakened further in October, with the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance declining to -36%, from a revised -34% in September. 
  • The decline marked a second consecutive monthly deterioration, reflecting subdued buyer demand and rising mortgage rates.
  • New buyer enquiries remained unchanged at -24% in October, while agreed sales fell to -24% in October, from -18% in September, indicating a further slowdown in housing market activity. 
  • The outlook also deteriorated, with 12-month sales expectations falling to -17%, the weakest since July 2023, while house price expectations over the same period declined to -17%, from zero. 
  • RICS warned that elevated borrowing costs, persistent inflationary pressures and broader economic uncertainty may weigh on housing demand and prices over the coming year. 
 
  • The UK GDP for Q3:26 is scheduled for release today and is likely to have increased by 0.7% q/q, after having increased by 0.5% q/q in Q2:26. 
  • The monthly GDP for September is likely to have flatlined, after having increased by 0.1% m/m in August. 
  • The UK trade balance for September, also due out, is expected to see the trade deficit widen.
  • Manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 3.8% y/y in September, after having increased by 3.0% y/y in August.
 
  • US existing home sales for October are due out today and are expected to have fallen.
  • This is expected as mortgage rates being above 7% has exacerbated affordability constraints.
 
  • Locally, mining production for September is due out today; production declined by 12.7% y/y and by 5.4% m/m in August.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 50.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and down by 8.0% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $91.69/bbl; ($92.76/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3974/oz ($3987/oz*).
  • SA CDS 120bps*, Brazil 142bps* and Turkey 233bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.99%*, German bund at 3.31%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.64%*, SA's R2035 at 8.44%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data: 

  • 09h00: UK GDP (Q3:26), industrial production (September), manufacturing production (September), capacity utilisation (September), visible trade balance (September)
  • 11h00: Eurozone ECB publishes Economic Bulletin
  • 11h30: SA mining production (September)
  • 15h30: US initial jobless claims (7 November)
  • 17h00: US existing home sales (October)
  • 21h00: US Federal budget balance (October)
 

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