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In the loop 25 May 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.33/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.46/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+0.7%), INR (+0.5%) and ZAR (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.7%), BRL (-0.6%) and KRW (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Iran war: the US and Iran have signalled significant progress towards a potential agreement to formally end the conflict, while simultaneously maintaining military readiness.
  • Mediation efforts continued, with both sides indicating that a framework for extending the ceasefire and initiating broader negotiations was close to completion, although key differences remained substantial.
  • President Trump described a peace deal as “largely negotiated” and engaged regional leaders to finalise a memorandum of understanding.
  • He continued to warn that military options remained on the table if talks failed.
 
  • Central bank watch: the SARB will meet this week and is largely expected to hike the repo rate by 25 bps, to 7.00%, on Thursday.
  • The minutes of the ECB's April monetary policy meeting are due on Thursday.
  • The Governing Council issued a balanced press release at that meeting which emphasised that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth had intensified.
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Korea to keep rates unchanged, respectively on Wednesday and Thursday.
 
  • China's industrial profits for April, due out on Wednesday, likely remained firm on stronger producer prices and AI-related demand.
  • Japan's April industrial production, out on Friday, likely contracted again as higher energy costs squeezed manufacturers.
 
  • The Eurozone economic and consumer sentiment indices for May are on the cards this week. 
  • The economic sentiment index is likely to have slipped to 92.6 in May, from 93.0 in April.
  • The consumer sentiment index is currently at -19.0 in May; the final estimate is likely to have remained unchanged.
 
  • The US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for March is due for release tomorrow and is expected to show a moderation in house price growth.
  • This is expected as affordability pressures continued to weigh on demand. 
  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for May will also be published tomorrow.
  • The consumer sentiment index is likely to have declined to 92.0 in May, from 92.8 in April. 
  • Higher gasoline prices, persistent inflation, and uncertainty linked to the ongoing war in Iran are weighing on sentiment.
  • The Fed's preferred inflation gauge for April, the core PCE deflator, due on Thursday, is expected to have remained unchanged.
  • Thursday will also see the release of the second estimate of Q1:26 GDP, with real growth likely increasing to around 2.1% q/q, up from 2.0% q/q previously.
  • New homes sales for April are expected to have declined by 3.5% m/m, after having increased by 7.4% m/m in March.
  • Housing market activity faces persistent headwinds from elevated financing costs and an affordability crisis.
 
  • Locally, the SARB leading indicator for March is due for release tomorrow; the leading indicator increased to 120.2 in February, from xxx in January.
  • The April PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected to come in at 4.6% y/y, after having increased by 2.3% y/y in March.
  • The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for April are scheduled for release on Friday.
  • PSCE is expected to have increased by 8.6% y/y in April, from 8.5% y/y in March. 
  • The April trade balance is also due for release on Friday; the trade surplus is expected to have compressed to R17.5bn in April, from a surplus of R31.9bn in March. 
 
  • Moody's on Friday revised SA's credit outlook to positive, citing the country's improving fiscal position and commitment to reforms.
  • The agency affirmed SA's sovereign credit rating at Ba2 and noted that continued improvements could place debt and debt-service costs on a clear downward trajectory.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 60.4% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 5.5% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $97.60/bbl; ($103.54/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4556/oz ($4509/oz*).
  • SA CDS 142bps*, Brazil 121bps* and Turkey 252bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.55%*, German bund at 3.03%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.84%*, SA's R2035 at 8.66%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

  • No economic data releases.
 

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