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In the loop 15 September 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R19.00/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.99/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+0.9%), COP (+0.8%) and KRW (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the CZK (-1.6%), PLN (-1.2%) and HUF (-1.0%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up. 
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept the 1 yr medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate unchanged today, at 2.5%, after a surprise 15 bps cut in August.
  • China’s economy picked up pace in August as the summer travel boom and a heftier stimulus push boosted consumer spending and factory output.
  • Industrial production and retail sales increased in August on a y/y basis, both exceeding expectations.
  • The data suggests that the economy is showing signs of stabilization.
  • The Bank of Russia will meet today and is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12% after August’s emergency 350 bps rate hike.
  • Inflation in Russia is likely to stay above the central bank’s 4% target for the next 18 months.
  • The central bank’s guidance is thus likely to remain hawkish.
  • The US Empire State manufacturing survey for September is due out today.
  • The manufacturing index is expected to have improved to -10 in September, from -19 in August.
  • August saw a significant decline in new orders; the near-term outlook, however, remains optimistic, especially for new orders, shipments and hiring. 
  • Industrial production for August is also on the cards today; production is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m, after having increased by 1.0% m/m in July.
  • The University of Michigan Sentiment index for September is likely to have fallen again following its decline at the end of August. 
  • Eskom: Stage 5 loadshedding is currently in place until further notice.
  • This lower stage of loadshedding comes on the back of a slight improvement in generation capacity, and lower demand.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 10.0% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 5.0% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $94.47/bbl; ($93.70/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1915/oz ($1910/oz*).
  • SA CDS 246bps*, Brazil 167bps* and Turkey 391bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.28%*, German bund at 2.59%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.67%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.42%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

  • 10h30: UK BOE/Ipsos inflation expectations (August)
  • 11h00: Eurozone trade balance (July)
  • 12h30: Russia MPC meeting – no change expected
  • 14h30: US Empire manufacturing (September)
  • 15h15: US industrial production, capacity utilisation, manufacturing production (August)
  • 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (September)

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