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In the loop 08 September 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R19.10/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R19.18/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.9%), HUF (+0.4%) and PHP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the PLN (-1.3%), CZK (-1.3%) and CLP (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down. 


  • Several Fed policymakers commented on the US economy and monetary policy yesterday.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the debate is now shifting to how long policymakers should be keeping rates elevated.
  • Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted that pausing the hiking cycle at the upcoming meeting might be appropriate.
  • Logan, however, also signalled that rates might have to rise further to get inflation back to 2%. 
  • New York Fed President John Williams said that, while US monetary policy is "in a good place”, policymakers would need to assess the data to decide on how to proceed on rates.
  • He noted that policy is having the desired effects of bringing demand and supply more into balance as well as bringing inflation down.
  • Germany’s CPI for August is scheduled for release today.
  • Russia’s CPI is also on the cards today; CPI is expected at 5.1% y/y in August, from 4.3% y/y in July.
  • Inflation is also expected to come in north of the Bank of Russia’s target for the remainder of the year. 
  • The policy rate is expected to stay at 12% – at least until December.
  • Japan’s economy expanded at a slower pace than initially estimated in Q2:23.
  • GDP growth was 4.8% q/q in Q2:23, from 6.0% q/q in Q1:23; This as businesses and consumers spent less.
  • The expansion was driven almost entirely by overseas demand.
  • The data supports Prime Minister Fumia Kishida’s view that households and companies need more help as they struggle amidst the highest inflation in decades.
  • The G20 Summit 2023 kicks off in India from 9-10 September.
  • The Summit, under the theme of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam," translating into "One Earth · One Family · One Future”, will focus on policy matters to achieve global economic and sustainable growth.
  • There is speculation that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may formally change India’s name to “Bharat”.
  • Eskom: Stage 5 loadshedding is currently in place until 4pm; Stage 6 loadshedding will be implemented then.
  • The stage of loadshedding was downgraded from 6 to 5 on the back of improved generation capacity and emergency reserves. 
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 4.0% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 5.5% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $89.31/bbl; ($89.92/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1925/oz ($1918/oz*).
  • SA CDS 254bps*, Brazil 174bps* and Turkey 385bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.61%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.58%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.37%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.


Key events and data:


  • 21h00: US consumer credit (July)

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