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In the loop 29 April 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.55/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.54/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ZAR (+0.9%), HUF (+0.7%) and PLN (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.0%), ARS (-0.8%) and MXN (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Bank of Japan will meet on Thursday and is likely to sit pat on rates.
  • Investors will keep an eye on Governor Kazuo’s comments and any changes to the bank’s growth and inflation forecasts.
  • The Bank of Thailand is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday.
 
  • China’s PMIs are scheduled for release this week (Wednesday) and will likely show the manufacturing sector in retreat as US tariffs start to impede exports.
  • Australia’s CPI for Q1:25 is due out tomorrow; the report is likely to show inflation as cooling.
  • A number of other countries will release CPI data, including South Korea, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
 
  • Eurozone GDP for Q1:25 is in the spotlight this week Wednesday.
  • The data is expected to show that the economy expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q1:25, matching Q4:24’s increase. 
  • The economic recovery may be affected by US tariff threats.
  • Eurozone CPI for April is scheduled for release on Friday: CPI is expected to come in at 2.1% y/y in April, from 2.2% y/y in March.
  • Core CPI may have risen to 2.5% y/y in April, from 2.4% y/y in March.
 
  • The US Conference Board consumer confidence index for April, due out today, likely slipped to 88.0, from 92.9 in March.
  • The JOLTS job openings for March are also on the cards today and are likely have slipped to 7.50m, from 7.568m in February.
  • The US Q1:25 GDP, out on Wednesday, is expected to come in at 0.3%% q/q, from a 2.4% q/q increase in Q4:24.
  • The trade deficit is expected to have been the biggest drag, as businesses front-loaded goods imports ahead of the tariff surge.
  • Personal income and spending for March are scheduled for release on Wednesday.
  • The core PCE deflator is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in March, following a 0.4% m/m increase in February. 
  • Non-farm payrolls (NFP) for April, in the spotlight on Friday, are expected to have increased, by 134k, down from an increase of 228k in March.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.2%, in April.
 
  • Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for March are scheduled for release tomorrow.
  • PSCE is likely to come in at 2.7% y/y in March, from 3.68% y/y in February. 
  • The monthly budget balance data for March is also on the cards tomorrow; the budget surplus came in at R24.2bn in February.
  • The March trade balance is also scheduled for release tomorrow; a trade surplus of R14.9bn is expected, from R20.9bn in February. 
  • The BER manufacturing PMI for April is due for release on Friday; the index increased to 48.7 in March, from 44.7 in February.
  • The April Naamsa vehicle sales are also due on Friday; vehicle sales are expected to have increased by 5.0% y/y in April, after having increased by 12.5% y/y in March.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 12.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 26.0% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $65.19/bbl; ($65.86/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3308/oz ($3315/oz*).
  • SA CDS 228bps*, Brazil 183bps* and Turkey 355bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.20%*, German bund at 2.52%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.69%**, SA’s R2035 at 10.66%**.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

** Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 10h00: Eurozone ECB 1 yr and 3 yr inflation expectations (March)
  • 11h00: Eurozone consumer and economic confidence (April)
  • 14h30: US advance goods trade balance (March)
  • 15h00: US S&P CoreLogic house price index (February), FHFA house price index (February)
  • 16h00: US JOLTS job openings (March), Conference Board consumer confidence index (April)
 

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