In the loop 11 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.22/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.19/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+3.8%), CLP (+2.7%) and ZAR (+2.3%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.7%) and HKD (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Oil prices declined yesterday as global leaders signalled that policy measures might help limit the impact of the war with Iran on energy markets.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) convened an extraordinary meeting of its 32 member governments, most of which are advanced Western economies.
The meeting aimed to assess supply security and current market conditions before deciding whether to release emergency reserves to the market.
Member countries collectively hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil stocks, in addition to around 600 million barrels held under government obligations.
It's been reported that the IEA has proposed the largest-ever release of strategic oil reserves in an effort to contain the surge in energy prices triggered by the Iran conflict.
The proposed release would exceed the 182 million barrels that were released in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, making it the biggest coordinated drawdown of reserves on record.
Member countries are expected to decide on the proposal later today.

Th EU's energy Minister Dan Jorgensen urged EU member states to reduce energy taxes where possible, as the conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil and gas prices higher.
European businesses and households have argued that this places them at a competitive disadvantage relative to firms in Asia and North America.
Calls to address the issue have intensified after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory attacks across the Gulf region.

The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) commented yesterday that inflation could end 2026 at around 3% if energy prices evolve in line with current market forecasts.
The OBR added that the outlook would be largely unchanged if prices fall back to levels seen before the Iran war.
Inflation may rise slightly in the near term due to higher petrol prices — but prices are expected to decline relatively quickly.

US existing home sales increased in February, rising by 1.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, after having declined by 5.4% m/m in January (4.02 million).
The rebound was supported by lower mortgage rates, improving housing affordability, and an increase in housing inventory.
Despite the m/m gain, sales remained 1.4% y/y lower, highlighting the continued weakness in housing demand.
The median existing home price edged up 0.3% y/y, to $398,000 in February.
Inventory rose 2.4% to 1.29 million units, equivalent to about 3.8 months of supply.

The US February CPI report will be a key focus today.
Headline inflation is expected to have remained at 2.4% y/y in February.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3% in February, following a 0.2% increase in January.
Core CPI is likely to have remained unchanged, at 2.5% y/y, in February.
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator for January, the core PCE deflator, scheduled for release on Friday, is expected to have increased in January.
The Fed's budget balance data for February is also on the cards today.

Brent crude oil is currently at $86.93/bbl; ($87.80/bbl*).
Gold is at $5201/oz ($5191/oz*).
SA CDS 149bps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 247bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.15%*, German bund at 2.83%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.52%*, SA's R2035 at 8.38%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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