In the loop 24 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.00/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.01/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the BRL (+1.1%), COP (+1.1%) and ZAR (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the TRY (-0.2%) and ARS (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: the US has signalled that it would intensify its economic campaign against Iran through a new round of sanctions, prompting sharp warnings from Tehran that any country supporting such measures would be viewed as participating in an “act of war”.
Iranian officials maintained that Iran would not yield to external pressure, arguing that negotiations should proceed from a position of strength.

Central bank watch: the Central Bank of Thailand is likely to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.00% on Wednesday.
The Bank of Korea is expected to hike its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps on Thursday as underlying inflation builds on the back of AI-driven growth.
The Philippines central bank may also raise rates on Thursday as inflation remains well above target.

China's industrial profits, due on Thursday, likely remained robust in July, although growth may have slowed, with strong tech demand offsetting weakness in other sectors.

The German IFO business climate index for August, due out tomorrow, is expected to have increased to 87.2, from 86.6 in July.
The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for August (final estimate) is due out on Friday; sentiment is likely to have remained unchanged, at -15.5 in August, from the previous estimate, and from -15.9 in July.
Economic confidence is expected to have increased to 97.6 in August, from 96.9 in July.

The focus in the US this week will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the annual gathering of global central bankers.
Warsh faces a key choice: reassure markets that the Fed has a credible plan to either curb inflation, or to reinforce his push to limit forward guidance and avoid signalling the policy outlook.
The US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for June is due for release tomorrow and is expected to show an improvement in house price growth.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for August will also be published tomorrow.
The consumer sentiment index is likely to have slipped to 90.2 in August, from 90.8 in July.
The US Fed's preferred inflation gauge for July, the core PCE deflator, due on Wednesday, is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m, after having increased by 0.1% m/m in June.
Thursday will see the release of advance goods trade balance for July; the trade deficit is expected to have narrowed to $100.2bn, from a deficit of $101.4bn in June.
The University of Michigan consumer index for August (final estimate), due for release on Friday, is expected to have remained unchanged, at 51.0 in August, from 55.2 in July.
Consumers remain concerned about the inflation outlook and borrowing costs.

Locally, the SARB's leading indicator for June is due for release tomorrow; the leading indicator slipped to 118.2 in May, from 118.6 in April.
The July PPI is due out on Thursday and is expected at 6.0% y/y, after having increased by 7.5% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have decreased by 0.9% in July, following a 0.1% decline in June.
The monthly budget balance for July is also scheduled for release on Friday.

Brent crude oil is currently at $93.01/bbl; ($94.39/bbl*).
Gold is at $4632/oz ($4603/oz*).
SA CDS 120bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 220bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.71%*, German bund at 3.25%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.78%*, SA's R2035 at 8.56%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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