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Standard Bank Group
South Africa 15 October 2025

Electricity Tracker

Shireen Darmalingam

  • Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has improved significantly, averaging around 66.6% in Q3:25, up from an average of 59.8% in 2024. This is above the average of 54.7% in 2023. The improvement in the EAF is largely on the back of a decline in unplanned outages. Eskom remains focused on achieving financial and operational sustainability through continued improvements in the EAF, with a target of 70% by year-end 2025.
  • The unplanned outage factor (ratio of energy losses over a given time to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time) was 28.8% in Q1:25, and dropped to 27.3% in Q2:25; it had ended 2024 at 24.8%. It is currently down, at 22% in Q3:25. The planned outage factor (planned maintenance) ended 2024 just above 19%. It has averaged 11.7% in 2025 thus far, compared to 12.6% in the comparable period in 2024.
  • The decrease in the level of loadshedding, and the suspension of loadshedding last year, came on the back of a combination of factors, including an increase in private-sector electricity self-generation capacity. Lower levels of unplanned outages have contributed significantly to the improvement supply and the suspension of loadshedding since then.
  • Eskom published its Summer Outlook last month, covering the period 1 September 2025 to 31 March 2026. The utility forecasts no loadshedding due to the structural progress in plant performance as a result of the ongoing implementation of the Generation Recovery Plan. Key drivers include an increase of approximately 4 GW in available capacity, supported by the commercial operation of Kusile Unit 6 and the return of Medupi Unit 4, as well as a reduction in planned maintenance during peak summer months. The utility also highlighted progress in recovering 7.8 GW of generation capacity through long-term outage completions and new builds, alongside an additional 385 MW from IPPs since FY23. Beyond operational gains, Eskom emphasized measures to curb electricity theft, address municipal debt, and advance the Transmission Development Plan, all aimed at sustaining reliability and enabling a controlled transition to a low-carbon energy mix. The outlook signals a marked improvement from previous years, with Eskom achieving 153 loadshedding-free days between April and August 2025, underscoring growing system resilience.
  • SA experienced cumulative loadshedding of 2,886 GWh in 2024, and only 755 GWh in 2025 thus far. It was a cumulative 16,823 GWh in 2023. Despite four short-lived bouts of loadshedding 2025, loadshedding has largely been at bay since 26 March 2024.
 

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