In the loop 03 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.46/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.52/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the THB (+0.6%), PHP (+0.5%) and TWD (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.4%), KRW (-1.1%) and HUF (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: US President Trump has announced that negotiations with Iran should resume today.
He noted that he had called off planned large-scale military strikes after requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Iran, arguing that a potential agreement was within reach.
Iranian officials suggested that mediators were working to revive and build on the memorandum of understanding signed with Washington in June.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to keep the repo rate at 5.25% on Wednesday.
The RBI is likely to stay on hold until December, when pass-through to core inflation should be clearer.

The UK composite PMI for July (final estimate) is expected to have increased to 52.8, from 52.5 in June, despite uncertainty about the Middle East war.
In the Eurozone, the July composite PMI (final estimate) is also due today and is likely to have increased to 52.0 (unchanged from the previous estimate), from 51.4 in June.
Retail sales for June are scheduled for release on Thursday and are expected to have increased by 1.0% y/y, following a 1.6% y/y increase in May.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI for July is due out today and is likely to have increased to 53.9, from 53.3 in June.
The US ISM services PMI for July is due out on Wednesday and is likely to have increased to 54.5, from 54.0 in June.
The trade balance, due out tomorrow, is likely to have compressed in June, to -$73.0bn, from -$77.6bn in May.
Exports likely declined less than imports, with all major categories of goods imports set to post declines.
The JOLTS job openings data for June, due for release tomorrow, likely slipped to 7.504 million in June, from 7.594 million in May.
The non-farm payrolls for July are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 80k in July, after having increased by 57k in June.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.2%.

Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for July is due for release today; the index fell to 47.3 in June, from 50.8 in May.
The July Naamsa vehicle sales are also due out today; vehicle sales increased by 15.3% y/y in June.
The industry-wide PMI for July is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently in expansion, at 50.5.
Electricity production and consumption for June are due for release on Thursday.
The SARB's gross and net reserves for July are scheduled for release on Friday.

Brent crude oil is currently at $83.25/bbl; ($90.12/bbl*).
Gold is at $4060/oz ($4046/oz*).
SA CDS 128bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 237bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.73%*, German bund at 3.20%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.76%*, SA's R2035 at 8.57%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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