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In the loop 29 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.16/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.14/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the THB (+0.8%), ZAR (+0.5%) and RUB (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-2.8%), COP (-1.3%) and PHP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Fed will meet today to decide on rates and is largely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 bps.
  • Investors will keep an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference after the interest rate announcement.
  • The Bank of Canada is also expected to cut rates by 25 bps today.
 
  • President Trump has said that he is considering appointing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair, even though Bessent has ruled himself out and is currently leading the search for Jay Powell’s successor.
  • Trump praised Bessent for his skill in “soothing” financial markets during the first year of his second term.
 
  • President Trump said he expects to ease his fentanyl-related trade tariffs on China as part of an upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping.
  • His remarks came a day before the two leaders are scheduled to meet in South Korea.
  • Trump and Xi are expected to discuss further steps to de-escalate their ongoing trade dispute. 
  • The meeting follows progress made by Chinese and US negotiators who over the weekend reached a broad framework agreement in Malaysia.
  • This agreement paves the way for the two presidents to finalise a trade deal that could roll back many of the tariffs, fees and export restrictions imposed, or threatened to be, in recent weeks.
 
  • The European Union and China are set to hold urgent talks in Brussels this week to ease escalating trade tensions over rare earth exports.
  • The dispute stems from China’s recent decision to tighten export controls on critical minerals and related technologies.
  • These disputes have disrupted European supply chains and raised concerns across industries such as automotive and electronics.
 
  • Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for September are scheduled for release today.
  • PSCE is expected to come in at 5.9% y/y in September, matching August’s increase. 
  • M3 money supply increased by 6.2% y/y in August.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 13.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 50.8% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $64.29/bbl; ($64.40/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3957/oz ($3952/oz*).
  • SA CDS 152bps*, Brazil 137bps* and Turkey 249bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 3.97%*, German bund at 2.62%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.98%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.86%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 08h00: SA M3 and private sector credit extension (September)
  • 11h30: UK net consumer credit (September)
  • 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (24 October)
  • 20h00: US FOMC interest rate decision – 25 bps cut expected
 

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