In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.95/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R19.02/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+0.2%) was the biggest gainer; the KRW (-1.2%), HUF (-1.2%) and CLP (-1.0%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• In Asia, China’s industrial profits for February are on the cards this week; an increase is expected.
• Japan’s unemployment and industrial production data releases, both for February, are on the cards on Friday.
• The unemployment rate is likely to have increased to 2.5% in February, from 2.4% in January.
• Industrial production will likely rebound in February, after plunging in January.
• Sri Lanka’s central bank is due to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow; the central bank is likely to keep rates on hold. 

• Sweden’s Riksbank will meet on Wednesday and is largely expected to keep its policy rate on hold, at 4%. 
• The central bank is expected to opt for a cautious approach due to the risks to inflation.
• Several Eurozone countries’ inflation for February will be released this week.

• The US new home sales for February are due out today and likely increased by 2.1% m/m (to 675k), after having increased by 1.5% m/m (661k).
• The Conference Board’s consumer confidence will likely be little changed in March, after declining in February; the data is due out on Tuesday.
• The third estimate of the Q4:23 GDP is scheduled for release on Thursday and will likely remain unchanged, at 3.2% q/q (annualised). 
• There is a risk that growth could be revised lower due to a wider trade deficit and a greater reduction in inventories. 
• The March (final estimate) of the University of Michigan survey is also due on Thursday and is expected to remain unchanged. 
• Personal income and spending as well as the core PCE deflator for February are due out on Friday.
• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in February, from 0.4% m/m in January.

• Locally, the BER’s consumer confidence for Q1:24 is scheduled for release today.
• The Q4:23 non-farm payrolls are also due out on Tuesday; payrolls increased by 0.3% q/q in Q3:23.
• The SARB will meet this week to decide on monetary policy and is largely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged, at 8.25%.
• The SARB’s leading indicator for January is scheduled for release on Wednesday; the index slipped to 111.0 in December. 
• The SARB will publish its March Quarterly Bulletin on Thursday.
• The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for February are also due out on Thursday.
• PSCE is likely to come in at 3.24% y/y in February, from 3.16% y/y in January.
• The February trade balance, also due on Thursday; a trade surplus of R9bn is expected, from a deficit of R9.4bn in January.
• The monthly Budget balance data for February is scheduled for release on Thursday. 
• The February PPI is also on the cards on Thursday and is expected at 5.0% y/y, from 4.7% y/y in January.
• Eskom: loadshedding has been suspended until 4pm when Stage 2 loadshedding will be implemented. 

• Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 11.5% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 5.1% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $85.93/bbl; ($85.43/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2168/oz ($2165/oz*).
• SA CDS 253bps*, Brazil 136bps* and Turkey 319bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.20%*, German bund at 2.32%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.80%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.41%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

• 10h00: SA BER consumer confidence (Q1:24)
• 16h00: US new home sales (February)

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