In the loop 19 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.08/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.04/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+0.3%), PHP (+0.2%) and ARS (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.9%), RUB (-0.3%) and IDR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets: the Nikkei is up this morning.

Central bank watch: Bank Indonesia is also likely to stay on today.
The Philippines central bank may cut its overnight borrowing rate by 25 bps today.

ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau has commented that the central bank is closely monitoring trends in the FX market.
He noted that the ECB stands ready to respond to any possible impact on inflation from volatility in the exchange rate.
Villeroy added that the euro's strength against the dollar could weigh on prices, but that the rally reflected dollar weakness on the back of US policy uncertainty.
He further stated that risks of inflation undershooting the target outweigh the risks of inflation overshooting.
Villeroy called for policymakers to maintain a “pragmatic” and “agile” approach to monetary policy.

ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said the euro's global standing is strengthening as investors increasingly turn to it during periods of market stress.
She remarked that the euro is progressively acting as a “safe haven”, enhancing its international role.
Schnabel also confirmed her intention to serve out her full term on the ECB's Executive Board.
Her comments follow reports that ECB President Christine Lagarde may step down before completing her eight-year mandate, as well as the recent announcement that Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, will also leave his post ahead of schedule.

Eurozone consumer confidence for February is due for release today.
The index is likely to have improved in February, albeit only slightly, to -12.0, from -12.4 in January.
The ECB is also expected to publish its Economic Bulletin today.

The minutes of the US FOMC meeting showed that policymakers voted 10 to 2 at its 27-28 January meeting to keep the benchmark Fed funds rate unchanged, at 3.50-3.75%.
Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran dissented, favouring a 25 bps rate cut.
The minutes revealed renewed concern among policymakers about inflation dynamics, with several participants indicating that rates may need to rise if inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target.
A large majority judged that downside risks to employment have moderated in recent months, while the risk of more persistent inflation remains elevated.
The minutes further noted that “several participants cautioned that easing policy further in the context of elevated inflation readings could be misinterpreted as implying diminished policymaker commitment to the 2% inflation objective”.
Since the January meeting, many officials have reiterated that the resilience of the US economy affords the FOMC room to remain patient when considering further policy adjustments.

US industrial production overshot expectations in January, increasing by 0.7% m/m, after having increased by a downwardly revised 0.2% m/m in December.
Manufacturing production also increased in January, by 0.4% m/m, after having flatlined in December.

The US trade balance for December is scheduled for release today.
The trade deficit is likely to have narrowed slightly, to $55.5bn in December, from $56.8bn in November.
Tariffs were unchanged in December; as such, trade-related volatility was likely subdued in December.
The US leading index is likely to have declined by 0.3% in December, matching November's decline.

Brent crude oil is currently at $70.50/bbl; ($70.35/bbl*).
Gold is at $4994/oz ($4977/oz*).
SA CDS 138bbps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 219bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.08%*, German bund at 2.73%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.05%*, SA's R2035 at 7.92%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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