In the loop 07 April 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.90/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.86/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.8%), HUF (+0.9%) and PEN (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.9%), IDR (-0.2%), TRY (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Iran war: now in its fifth week, tentative ceasefire signals are being strained by the risk of further escalation.
President Trump said in a news conference yesterday that negotiations with Iran for a possible ceasefire are continuing in “good faith” and “going well”.
He insisted that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must be part of any accord, warning that if Iran doesn't agree to the US's terms, the military may “decimate” Iran's bridges and power plants.
Iran has reportedly passed a rejection of a ceasefire proposal via mediator Pakistan after its top military commander deemed Trump's ultimatum as “delusional” and as having no impact on the war.
In turn, Iran demanded a permanent end to the war, the lifting of sanctions, reconstruction efforts, and protocols for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned that global merchandise trade growth is expected to slow sharply as a result of war disruptions, from about 4.7% in 2025 to between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2026.
Following last week's meeting, Britian hosts a planning conference to discuss appropriate measures for an international coalition (excluding the US) to secure safe passage through the strait after the conflict has ended.

Japan's household spending contracted for a third straight month in February.
Real household spending declined 1.8% y/y in February, following January's decline of 1.0% y/y and a drop of 2.6% y/y in December.
Spending on education and transportation saw the largest y/y declines.
On a m/m basis, real household spending rose 1.5% in February.
Inflation has been above the BOJ's target of 2% for four years; fiscal measures, to soften the blow from rising prices, were introduced at the start of this year and broadened, following the impact of the Iran war.
Real incomes are, however, recovering due to rising wages.
Household income increased 1.6% y/y and 1.3% y/y in February and January respectively, adjusted for inflation.
Consumer confidence rose to an almost seven-year high in February; consumer confidence data for March will be released on Thursday.
Japan's leading index increased to 112.4 in February, from 112.1 in January; the coincident index declined to 116.3, from 117.9 in January.

The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) for March surprised on the upside, underscoring the view of a relatively robust US labour market.
NFPs increased by 15k in March, from an upwardly adjusted decline of 6k (-12k previously reported) in February.
Average hourly earnings growth slowed somewhat in March; earnings rose 3.5% y/y, after rising 3.8% y/y in February.
The unemployment rate declined to 4.3% in March, from 4.4% in February.
Today sees the release of the ADP weekly employment data, showing the change in private-sector payrolls, for the week ending 21 March.

Locally, the S&P Global SA PMI for March will be released this morning.
This industry-wide PMI was 50 in both January and February, up from 47.7 in December.
Gross and net reserves for March are due out on Thursday.
Thursday will also see the release of manufacturing production data for February.

Brent crude oil is currently at $111.56/bbl; ($109.77/bbl*).
Gold is at $4639/oz ($4660/oz*).
SA CDS 186bps*, Brazil 138bps* and Turkey 287bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.31%*, German bund at 2.99%**, SA 10-year generic at 9.15%**, SA's R2035 at 8.98%**.

* Denotes yesterday's close; **Denotes Thursday's close.

Key events and data:

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