In the loop 11 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is relatively steady this morning, at R16.19/$, after closing slightly weaker yesterday (R16.18/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the IDR (+0.7%), COP (+0.4%) and PHP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.6%), KRW (-0.6%) and HUF (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: negotiations are continuing over the Strait of Hormuz, although prospects for a near-term breakthrough appears to have diminished.
Iran reiterated that it would not support a full reopening of the strategic waterway unless the US met a range of demands.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 4.35% today.
The central bank noted that it remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embedded.

Eurozone industrial production, due out on Thursday, is expected to have decreased by 0.6% y/y in June, after having fallen by 1.2% y/y in May.
The Eurozone GDP data for Q2:26 (second estimate) is due out on Friday; growth is expected to have increased by 0.4% q/q in Q2:26, after having flatlined in Q1:26
Employment data for Q2:26 is also on the cards on Friday.
The UK'S RICS house balance for July is on scheduled for release on Thursday.
The UK GDP data for the Q2:26 is due for release on Thursday; the figures are likely to see the economy expand by 0.4% q/q in Q2:26, down from 0.6% q/q in Q1:26.
Monthly GDP is likely to have decreased by 0.1% m/m in June, after having increased by 0.1% m/m in May.
The trade balance June is also scheduled for release on Thursday.

The US July CPI report will be a key focus this week (Wednesday); headline inflation is expected to have moderated to 3.4% y/y in July, from 3.5% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.1% in July, following a 0.4% fall in June.
The US NFIB small business optimism index for July, scheduled for release today, likely increased to 97.5, from 97.4 in June.
Existing home sales, also due out today, are expected to have fallen in July.
Pending home sales fell sharply in June, pointing to another weak month for existing home sales in July.
The PPI for July is expected to come in at 4.9% y/y, from 5.5% y/y in June, on Thursday.
Retail sales, due on Thursday, likely increased by 0.1% m/m in July, from a 0.2% m/m increase in June, reflecting weaker vehicle sales as higher gasoline prices weighed on consumer demand throughout the month.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for August, likely slipped to 54.7, from 55.2 in July.

Locally, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for Q2:26 is scheduled for release today: the unemployment rate is expected at 32.6%, from 32.7% in Q1:26.
Manufacturing production for June is also due out today; production likely declined by 3.7% y/y in June, following a 4.3% y/y in May.
Manufacturing output is likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m in June, after increasing by 1.1% m/m in May.
Mining production for June is scheduled for release on Thursday; production is likely to have declined by 3.4% y/y, following a 5.4% y/y decline in May.
Mining production likely increased by 0.8% m/m in June, after having fallen by 5.2% m/m in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $88.00/bbl; ($87.72/bbl*).
Gold is at $4382/oz ($4390/oz*).
SA CDS 121bps*, Brazil 122bps* and Turkey 224bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.70%*, German bund at 3.17%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.47%*, SA's R2035 at 8.28%**.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

** Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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