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Closing the loop 23 November 2022

Closing the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

Market highlights:

  • The rand is stronger at R17.09/$ (R17.26/$*) today; it ranged between R17.08/$ and R17.27/$.
  • The currency is below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages (R17.86/$ and R17.38/$) and above its 200-day moving average (R16.41/$).
  • EM currencies are mixed today; the ZAR (+1.0%), RUB (+0.8%) and PHP (+0.7%) are the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.6%), THB (-0.5%) and CNY (-0.4%) are the biggest losers.
  • The UK manufacturing PMI remained unchanged in November and remained below the 50-benchmark line at 46.2.
  • The services PMI also remained steady at 48.8 in November; the composite index increased only slightly to 48.3 in October from 48.2 in October.   
  • The data, however, underestimates the decline in economic activity during the month and the cost-of-living crisis.
  • UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt testifies before the Treasury Committee about his Autumn economic statement later today. 
  • The Eurozone composite PMI increased unexpectedly to 47.8 in November, albeit remaining in contraction for the 5th consecutive month, from 47.3 in October.   
  • Both the manufacturing and services PMIs performed better than expected in November.
  • There were signs of improvement in confidence as supply chain constraints and price pressures eased.
  • The US composite PMI is expected at 48 in November, from 48.2 in October; the manufacturing gauge likely slipped in November.
  • The University of Michigan sentiment for November (final estimate) is expected to have fallen, reflecting uncertainty over inflation, rising interest rates, and the likelihood of a recession in 2023.
  • The US November FOMC meeting minutes are in the spotlight later this evening. 
  • Locally, the October CPI came in higher than expected at 7.6% y/y from 7.5% y/y in September.
  • CPI was up on a m/m basis in October by 0.4% after having increased by 0.1% in September.
  • Core CPI increased to 5.0% y/y in October following a 4.7% y/y increase in September.
  • Today’s upside surprises in both CPI and core CPI, and the interruption of the downtrend in inflation from the recent peak in July, will likely stoke the SARB’s inflation concerns.
  • The data also supports the general approach in this cycle of erring on the side of caution and frontloading the interest rate hikes.
  • The SARB is expected to deliver its MPC rate decision tomorrow; the SARB is expected to debate a hike of either 50 bps or 75 bps.
  • The BER’s business confidence index for Q4:22 slipped to 38 from 39 in Q3:22.
  • There was improvement in sentiment among building contractors, which helped to partly counteract the deterioration amongst wholesalers and retailers. 
  • The manufacturing sentiment remained at a low level in Q4:22.
  • Sentiment will, however, face global headwinds, uncertain electricity supply, high inflation and rising interest rates.
  • The October PPI is scheduled for release tomorrow.
  • Eskom: Stage 4 loadshedding continues until 5am tomorrow; Stage 2 will be implemented at 5am tomorrow until 4pm.
  • This cycle is expected until further notice.
  • The oil price eased today as the EU discussed imposing a price cap on Russian oil between $65 and $70.
  • The oil price is down by 3.6% today, and up by 9.5% in the year-to-date.   
  • The gold price is down by 0.2% today, and down by 5.1% in the year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is at $85.22/bbl ($88.36/bbl*).
  • Gold price is at $1736/oz ($1739/oz*). 
  • SA CDS is at 251bps (261bps*), Brazil 263bps (260bps*), Turkey 557bps (569bps*).
  • Yields: US 10yr at 3.75% (3.75%*), German bund at 1.98% (1.97%*) and SA 10-year generic at 10.81% (10.88%*), SA’s R186 is at 8.65% (8.65%*).
  • The JSE ALSI is up by 0.8% today (+0.4%*).

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 02h30: Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing, services and composite PMI (November)
  • 11h30: SA PPI (October)
  • 14h30: Eurozone ECB MPC meeting minutes (October)
  • 15h00: SA SARB MPC interest rate decision – 75 bps hike expected
  • US public holiday – Thanksgiving

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