In the loop 09 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.99/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.03/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+1.4%), CLP (+1.3%) and ZAR (+1.1%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.4%), INR (-0.3%) and IDR (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

China's CPI for January is due out on Wednesday.
Headline CPI is expected to have moderated on base effects, while firmer global commodity prices should help ease producer price deflation in January.

UK GDP data for Q4:25 should show that the economy ended the year on a slightly stronger footing.
Growth is expected to have increased by 0.2% q/q in Q4:25, following a 0.1% q/q expansion in Q3:25.
There are indications that uncertainty has eased in the wake of the November Budget, while the decline in interest rates over the past 18 months is expected to feed through more meaningfully into economic activity.
The RICS house price balance for January, due on Thursday, is expected to have improved to -10%, from -14% in December.
In the Eurozone, the Sentix investor confidence index for February, due for release today, is expected to show an improvement in sentiment.
December trade data, due on Friday, are likely to indicate that higher US tariffs continue to weigh on the region's export performance.
The second estimate of Eurozone GDP for Q4:25 is also scheduled for release on Friday.

The US NFIB small business optimism index, due out tomorrow, likely rose to 99.8 in January, from 99.5 in December.
Retail sales for December, also due tomorrow, likely rose 0.4% m/m in December, as car sales climbed 2.7%, from a 0.6% m/m increase in November.
Business inventories likely increased by 0.2% m/m in November, with manufacturing inventories and wholesale inventories expected to have improved.
The BLS will publish the delayed non-farm payrolls report for January on Wednesday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 69k, after having increased by 50k in December.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.4%.
Existing home sales for January, due on Thursday, are expected to have declined by 3.5% m/m, following a 5.1% m/m rise in December.
The US January CPI report will be a key focus this week, due out on Friday.
Headline inflation is expected to have moderated to 2.5% y/y in January, from 2.7% y/y in December.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3% in January, matching December's increase.
Core CPI is likely to come in at 2.5% y/y in January, from 2.6% y/y in December.

Locally, mining production for December is due out on Thursday; production declined by 2.7% y/y and 5.9% m/m in November.
Manufacturing production for December is also due out on Thursday; production decreased by 1.0% y/y and 1.1% m/m in November.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.38/bbl; ($68.05/bbl*).
Gold is at $5030/oz ($4964/oz*).
SA CDS 140bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 218bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.20%*, German bund at 2.84%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.15%*, SA's R2035 at 8.04%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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