In the loop 11 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.52/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.54/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+0.6%), IDR (+0.6%) and COP (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the PEN (-0.5%), RUB (-0.3%) and BRL (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: yesterday saw a sharp re-escalation in hostilities that significantly undermined already fragile negotiations to end the Iran war.
The US launched a renewed wave of “self-defence” airstrikes on multiple Iranian targets following the downing of a US helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz.
As such, diplomatic efforts deteriorated.
US officials indicated that negotiations had stalled, with President Trump stating Iran had taken too long to agree to terms and warning that it would “pay the price”.
He nonetheless still claimed a deal was close and urged Tehran to sign an agreement.

Central bank watch: the ECB's policy meeting is on the cards today; the central bank is largely expected to raise borrowing costs by 25 bps, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%.
This would be the first rate increase since 2023.
Investors will keep a close eye on comments made by ECB President Christine Lagarde after the meeting.
They will be particularly interested in guidance regarding the next interest rate decision at the end of July.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 37% today.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25% yesterday.
Governor Tiff Macklem said policymakers face a difficult balancing act as economic growth weakens while inflation remains elevated.
He noted that this requires monetary policy to remain flexible amid ongoing uncertainty.
The central bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% in the coming months before gradually returning to its 2% target.
Macklem noted that the BOC will closely monitor underlying inflation measures and the share of CPI components rising by 3% or more to assess whether higher energy prices are becoming embedded across the economy.
He added that if the conflict in the Middle East persists and elevated energy costs lead to sustained inflationary pressures, further monetary tightening may be required, including the possibility of consecutive increases in the policy rate.

According to the UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Residential Market Survey, new buyer demand was unchanged at -35 in May, showing that agents reporting a fall outweighed those seeing an increase.
The slowdown in Britain's residential property market appears to have bottomed out, as buyers and sellers come to accept the reality of higher borrowing costs and weak sentiment.
Sales activity remained subdued and house prices continued to edge lower, though the pace of decline seemed to be easing.
The survey suggests the recent downturn in activity may be beginning to stabilise.
However, it may be premature to interpret this as the start of a recovery.

Locally, the current account for Q1:26 is scheduled for release today; the surplus is expected to have widened to 1.1% of GDP in Q1:26, from a surplus of 0.6% of GDP in Q4:25.
Mining production for April is due out; production is expected to have increased by 3.5% y/y in April, up from 2.5% y/y in March.
Mining production is expected to have increased by 0.5% m/m in April, after having fallen by 5.1% m/m in March.
Manufacturing production for April is also scheduled for release today; production is likely to have increased by 1.5% y/y in April, after having increased by 0.9% y/y in March.
On a m/m basis, production is likely to have increased by 1.2% in April, following a 0.8% increase in March.

Oil prices rose yesterday after President Trump expressed growing frustration over Iran's delay in signing a peace agreement.
He warned that the US would “hit them hard” if necessary.
Trump also revealed a previously undisclosed US military operation designed to assist tankers and commercial vessels transiting the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
According to Trump, the mission has helped more than 100 million barrels of oil move safely through the critical shipping corridor.

Brent crude oil is currently at $94.07/bbl; ($93.10/bbl*).
Gold is at $4078/oz ($4072/oz*).
SA CDS 129bps*, Brazil 127bps* and Turkey 240bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.53%*, German bund at 3.07%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.80%*, SA's R2035 at 8.61%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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