In the loop 17 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.16/$, after closing slightly weaker on Friday (R16.20/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RON (+0.5%), HUF (+0.4%) and TWD (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.1%), BRL (-0.7%) and COP (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: there are growing tensions around the impending expiry of the US-Iran MoU and continued deadlock in negotiations aimed at securing a lasting settlement.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated that Tehran has not yet decided whether to resume direct negotiations with Washington.
Iran maintained that any political settlement would require the US to return to the commitments contained in the June agreement, including addressing sanctions, frozen Iranian assets, and maritime issues.
Israel carried out fresh attacks on Lebanon over the weekend.

Central bank watch: the US Fed meeting minutes of the July FOMC meeting are expected to show whether calls for further tightening gained traction, and how officials assessed inflation risks.
Bank Indonesia is likely to leave its key rate unchanged at 5.75% on Wednesday.
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday.

The UK jobs data, due out tomorrow, is expected to show that annual regular pay growth in the private sector likely moderated to 2.8% y/y in the three months to June, from 2.9% y/y in the three months to May.
The unemployment rate is expected to have improved in June, to 4.8%, from 4.9% in May.
UK CPI for July, due on Wednesday, is expected to have increased to 2.9% y/y in July, up from 2.6% y/y June.
Household energy bills are likely to have been the main driver of the acceleration in July.
The UK composite PMI for August, scheduled for Friday, is expected to have moderated to 51.5, from 52.2 in July.
Germany's June ZEW survey expectations for August are due out tomorrow.
Eurozone CPI of July (final estimate) is due out on Wednesday and likely to come in at 2.9% y/y, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 2.8% y/y June.
The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for August is scheduled for release on Friday; sentiment is likely to have deteriorated to -16.3 in August, from -15.9 in July.
The August composite PMI is also due on Friday and is likely to have slipped to 51.8, from 52.0 in July.
The ECB's 3-year inflation expectations, too due on Friday, is likely to have remained unchanged at 2.8% in July.

The US Empire State manufacturing index for August, due out today, is likely to have slipped to 10.0, from 15.6 in July.
The NAHB housing market index for August, also out today, is expected to come in at 33, from 34 in July.
Housing starts for July, out tomorrow, likely declined by 6.0% m/m, after June's 19% m/m increase.
The US leading indicator July, due for release on Thursday, is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m, following a 0.2% m/m decline in June.
The US composite PMI for August, scheduled for release on Friday, is expected to have slipped, albeit remaining in expansionary territory.

Locally, the July CPI is due on Wednesday and is expected to come in at 4.5% y/y, from 5.0% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.4%, after having increased by 0.7% m/m in June.
Core CPI is projected at 4.1% y/y in July, unchanged from June.
Retail sales for June are also due out on Wednesday and are expected to reflect growth of 2.5% y/y, up from a 2.3% y/y increase in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $88.60/bbl; ($88.52/bbl*).
Gold is at $4399/oz ($4376/oz*).
SA CDS 118bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 219bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.68%*, German bund at 3.20%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.62%*, SA's R2035 at 8.41%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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