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In the loop 24 November 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.82/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.81/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+0.7%), CZK (+0.4%) and RON (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers, the THB (-0.2%), ARS (-0.2%) and CLP (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down. 
  • Japan’s CPI for October came in at 3.3% y/y, from 3.0% y/y in September.
  • CPI, excluding fresh food, increased to 2.9% y/y in October, from 2.8% y/y in September.
  • Core CPI was driven mainly by electricity and energy subsidies being reduced to half in September, which affected October's index figures. 
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda faces persistent inflationary pressures, challenging his view that a fall in import prices would cool inflation in the near term.
  • Japan’s Jibun Bank composite PMI slipped to the 50pt benchmark in November, from 50.5 in October.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped in November, while the services PMI improved. 
  • The US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for November are scheduled for release later today.
  • The composite index is likely to have slipped to 50.4 in November, from 50.7 in October.
  • The manufacturing PMI is likely to have fallen into contraction in November, while the services PMI is likely to come in weaker, albeit still above 50pts.
  • The UK GfK consumer confidence index improved to -24 in November, from -30 in October.
  • Consumers are more optimistic about the outlook for the economy and their personal finances in November.
  • The measure of how consumers view the economy in the 12 months ahead increased to -26 in November, from -32 in October.
  • The improvement came despite the concerns around the cost-of-living crisis.
  • Consumers’ view of the outlook for their personal finances rose by five points, to -3.
  • The Central Bank of Sri Lanka cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 bps, to 10%, earlier today.
  • The cut marked the fourth cut this year and comes as policymakers look to boost the economy’s recovery following a crisis last year. 
  • Inflation has moderated to low single digits, from a peak of 70% last year, giving the central bank scope to ease rates.
  • The bank noted that inflation would likely remain subdued over the medium term.
  • Eskom: Stage 4 loadshedding is currently in place until further notice.
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and down by 5.4% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 9.3% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $81.26/bbl; ($81.42/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1994/oz ($1992/oz*).
  • SA CDS 241bps*, Brazil 149bps* and Turkey 338bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.40%*, German bund at 2.61%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.35%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.10%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

  • 16h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (November)

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