Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities Enablement Lab
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 23 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.15/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.03/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+3.3%), ARS (+0.3%) and PLN (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-2.1%), BRL (-1.8%) and ZAR (-1.2%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: the US issued a 48-hour ultimatum over the weekend demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 
  • It warned that failure to comply could result in strikes on Iranian power infrastructure.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Trump is prepared to “take whatever steps it takes” to achieve US objectives, including neutralising Iran's air force and navy. 
  • In response, Iran warned it would retaliate by targeting regional energy, desalination, and IT infrastructure, if attacked. 
  • This escalating “tit-for-tat” dynamic has heightened the risk of a broader regional conflict and amplified concerns over a prolonged global energy shock. 
  • A G7 foreign ministers meeting is scheduled for this week and will focus on Iran and Middle East tensions.
 
  • Central Bank watch: the SARB will meet on Thursday and is widely expected to leave the repo rate unchanged, at 6.75%.
 
  • China's industrial profits data for February, due on Friday, are expected to show a year-to-date increase, supported by stronger industrial output and easing price pressures.
 
  • The UK composite PMI for March is expected to have declined to 52.9, from 53.7 in February, reflecting concerns about the economic impact of the Iran war.
  • The February CPI report, due out on Wednesday, is likely to show that inflation held steady at 3% y/y.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI for March, due tomorrow, is likely to offer early insight into the economic fallout from the recent surge in commodity prices. 
  • Germany's Ifo business climate index, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will provide a further gauge of economic momentum in Q1:26.
 
  • The final reading of the US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March, due for release on Friday, is expected to have deteriorated to 54.0, from the preliminary 55.0 estimate.
  • This is expected as the Iran war continues to weigh on consumer confidence. 
  • The preliminary data indicated that households anticipated at least a short-term spike in gasoline prices; concerns have intensified as the Iran conflict has deepened.
 
  • Locally, the SARB leading indicator for January is due for release tomorrow; the leading indicator increased to 117.2 in December, from 118.4 in November.
  • The Q1:26 BER consumer confidence index is also on the cards tomorrow; the index improved to -9 in Q4:25, from -13 in Q3:25
  • The February PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected at 2.0% y/y, after having increased by 2.2% y/y in January.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 85.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 0.3% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $112.76/bbl; ($112.19/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4332/oz ($4492/oz*).
  • SA CDS 179bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 288bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.37%*, German bund at 3.04%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.29%*, SA's R2035 at 9.16%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 17h00: Eurozone consumer confidence (March)
 

Read PDF