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In the loop 29 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.44/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.41/$*).
  • EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the COP (-1.6%), MXN (-1.0%) and BRL (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: US and Iranian officials held discussions through intermediaries yesterday.
  • Talks reportedly focused on a revised version of Iran's seven-day proposal aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and restarting broader negotiations.
  • However, reports also indicated growing pessimism among Iranian officials about securing a comprehensive agreement before the US mid-term elections.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked the cash rate by 25 bps, to 4.60% (a 15-year high), as expected.
  • The central bank noted that it couldn't wait any longer to respond to rising energy costs.
 
  • UK shop price inflation eased slightly in September, with the British Retail Consortium reporting that prices rose 1.4% y/y, down from 1.5% y/y in August.
  • The moderation largely reflected widespread promotions and discounting as retailers sought to attract increasingly cost-conscious consumers. 
  • Competition among retailers also kept food price increases in check, despite upward cost pressures from higher global energy prices and poor harvests across Europe.
 
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday noted that inflation in the region is expected to rise further as the energy crisis pushes up prices.
  • However, there seems to be little evidence so far that higher energy costs are generating broader inflationary pressures.
  • Lagarde said that the ECB remains on a “middle path” for monetary policy, balancing the need to contain inflation against the risk of placing excessive pressure on economic growth. 
  • She added that, given the scale of the energy shock, the ECB cannot simply look through its impact.
  • A measured policy response thus remains appropriate to keep inflation under control.
 
  • The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for September (final estimate) is due out today; sentiment is likely to have remained unchanged, at -16.5 in September, from the previous estimate, and from -15.5 in August.
  • Economic confidence is expected to have increased to 98.9 in September, from 98.4 in August.
 
  • The US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for July is due for release today and is expected to show an improvement in house price growth.
  • The FHFA house price index for July is also due out; the index is likely to have improved by 0.1% m/m in July, after having flatlined in June.
  • The US JOLTS job openings data for August likely slipped to 7.225 million in August, from 7.271 million in July.
  • The data comes ahead of the non-farm payrolls for September, which are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 90k in September, after having increased by 162k in August.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%.
  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for September will also be published today.
  • The consumer sentiment index is likely to have slipped to 89.1 in September, from 89.4 in August.
 
  • Locally, Stats SA will release the non-farm payroll for Q2:26 today; non-farm payrolls decreased by 0.8% q/q in Q1:26.
  • The SARB's September Quarterly Bulletin is also due out today.
 
  • SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago yesterday highlighted the mounting pressures facing the global economy, noting that the wars in Ukraine and Iran have exacerbated supply constraints and kept energy prices elevated.
  • He said tighter monetary policy would help curb inflation, which has remained above the SARB's 3% target since March.
  • Kganyago expects inflation to slow significantly next year, adding that the bank has raised interest rates to ensure inflation returns sustainably to the 3% target.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 76.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 4.5% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $107.42/bbl; ($105.28/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4128/oz ($4115/oz*).
  • SA CDS 133bps*, Brazil 130bps* and Turkey 253bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 5.23%*, German bund at 3.64%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.07%*, SA's R2035 at 8.89%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 10h00: SA SARB Quarterly Bulletin (September)
  • 10h30: UK net consumer credit (August)
  • 11h00: Eurozone economic and consumer confidence (September)
  • 11h30: SA non-farm payrolls (Q2:26)
  • 15h00: US FHFA house price index (July), S&P Cotality CS house price index (July)
  • 16h00: US Conference Board consumer confidence index (September), JOLTS job openings (September)
 

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