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In the loop 18 March 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.09/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.08/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+2.3%), BRL (+1.0%) and CLP (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the IDR (-0.3%), TWD (-0.2%) and TRY (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai composite are up.
 
  • Japan’s tertiary industry index declined more than expected in January, by 0.3% m/m, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.4% m/m in December.
  • Services and retail trade were down in January, while business-related services were up in January.
 
  • The German ZEW expectations survey for March may have risen on the back of government’s plans for a massive jump in defence and infrastructure spending.
  • The sentiment index is expected to have increased to 48.3 in March, from 26.0 in February.
  • The short-term outlook, however, remains dominated by the risk of US tariffs on European exports.
  • The increase in trade uncertainty has already weighed on economic sentiment.
  • The Eurozone ZEW survey expectations index came in at 24.2 in February.
  • Several ECB policymakers are due to speak on the regional economy and monetary policy today.
 
  • The US NAHB housing market index undershot expectations in March, sliding to 39 (a 7-month low), from 42 in February.
  • Sentiment declined on concerns of the impact of tariffs on the US economy, higher construction costs, and economic uncertainty.
  • 29% of builders reported cutting costs in March.
  • They expect tariffs to boost prices by $9,000 per home.
 
  • US housing starts and building permits for February are due out today.
  • Housing starts are likely to have increased by 1.4% m/m (to 1385k), after having declined by 9.8% m/m (to 1366k) in January.
  • Building permits are expected to have slipped by 1.4% m/m (to 1453k) in February, following a 0.6% m/m (to 1473k) decline in January.
  • Industrial production for February is also on the cards and likely increased by 0.2% m/m, following a 0.5% m/m increase in January.
  • Manufacturing production for February is also scheduled for release.
 
  • Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 4.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 14.6% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $71.28/bbl; ($71.07/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3008/oz ($2997/oz*).
  • SA CDS 201bps*, Brazil 175bps* and Turkey 257bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.29%*, German bund at 2.81%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.63%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.63%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

  • 12h00: Germany ZEW survey expectations (March)
  • 12h00: Eurozone trade balance (January)
  • 14h30: US housing starts (February), building permits (February)
  • 15h15: US industrial production (February), capacity utilisation (February)
 

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