In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is unchanged this morning, at R17.67/$, after also closing unchanged yesterday (R17.67/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BGN (+0.6%), RON (+0.6%) and RUB (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.8%), COP (-0.7%) and MXN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• The BOJ kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at today’s policy meeting.
• The decision to hold rates steady comes on the back of political instability which has raised uncertainties.
• The BOJ noted that it would need to pay attention to the course of overseas economies, the US economy in particular. 
• The BOJ reiterated its intention to hike the benchmark interest rate when the inflation outlook has been achieved.

• UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented the UK Budget yesterday.
• Reeves announced £40bn in tax increases in a bid to boost public services and grow the UK economy.
• She noted that tax rises would help pay for an extra £25bn cash injection for the NHS, part of an overall spending increase of £70bn.
• Reeves also announced a string of measures targeting the wealthy and middle-class. 
• The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) indicated that measures announced in the Budget would not boost economic growth.
• The OBR expects economic growth to be lower than previously estimated.

• ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel noted yesterday that the central bank should exercise caution and not rush further rate cuts.
• Nagel added that policymakers should pay close attention to incoming economic information.
• He highlighted that the bank’s “data-dependent approach has proven its worth, especially in view of the prevailing uncertainty”.
• Nagel also said that, by the December policy meeting, the ECB would have new economic projections to inform the interest rate decision.

• Eurozone CPI for October is likely to come in at 1.9% y/y, from 1.7% y/y in September.
• Receding base effects will likely put upward pressure on CPI for the remainder of this year.
• The unemployment rate, also scheduled for release today, is expected to have remained unchanged, at 6.4%, in September.
• The ECB will publish its latest Economic Bulletin later today.

• US personal income and spending for September are in the spotlight today.
• Personal income is likely to have increased by 0.3% m/m in September, from a 0.2% m/m increase in August.
• Personal spending is likely to have increased by 0.4% m/m in September, following a 0.2% m/m increase in August.
• The Fed will keep an eye on the core PCE deflator, which is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in September, following a 0.1% m/m increase in August.

• Locally, the September trade balance is scheduled for release today; a trade surplus of R5.0bn is expected, from R5.6bn in August.
• The September PPI too is on the cards and is expected at 1.2% y/y, from 2.8% y/y in August.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 5.2% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 35.1% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $73.02/bbl; ($72.55/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2785/oz ($2788/oz*).
• SA CDS 188bps*, Brazil 155bps* and Turkey 264bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.30%*, German bund at 2.38%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.39%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.44%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

• 11h00: Eurozone ECB publishes Economic Bulletin
• 12h00: Eurozone CPI (October), unemployment rate (September)
• 12h30: SA PPI (September)
• 14h00: SA trade balance (September)
• 14h30: US personal income and spending, core PCE deflator (September), initial jobless claims (26 October)

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