In the loop 17 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.03/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R15.98/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the MYR (+0.2%), RUB (+0.2%) and HUF (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.3%), ZAR (-0.3%) and CLP (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei is down today; Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

The UK labour market data for December is on the cards today.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 5.1%, in December.
Wage gains likely eased in the last three months of 2025.
Private earnings (excluding bonuses) are expected to come in at 3.4% y/y in the three months to December, from 3.6% y/y in the three months to November.

The Eurozone ZEW expectations survey for February is due scheduled for release today; the index increased to 40.8 in January, from 33.7 in December.
The German ZEW economic expectations index for January is also due out today; the index is likely to have increased to 65.2 in February, from 59.6 in January.

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman yesterday said that the Fed is exploring ways to reduce the regulatory costs banks face in mortgage lending and servicing.
She noted that any potential changes would address legitimate concerns about the structure of the mortgage market while preserving appropriate prudential safeguards.
Bowman added that the Fed expects to propose two mortgage-related regulatory rules in the near future.

The US Empire manufacturing index for February is on the cards today; the index is expected to come in at 6.5 in February, from 7.7 in January.
While the sector has been very volatile, the index increased by 11 pts in January.
Firms indicated increased new orders and solid shipments in January.
The NAHB housing market index for January is also due; a slight increase to 38 is expected, from 37 in January.
Conditions, however, remain challenging for entry-level homes, while the luxury segment seems to be holding steady.

Locally, Stats SA releases the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q4:25 today.
The unemployment rate fell to 31.90% in Q3:25, from 33.2% in Q2:25.

The SARB commented yesterday that it is considering replacing the prime lending rate with its benchmark interest rate as the reference rate for loans.
Making the repo rate the anchor for prime-linked financial contracts would, according to the SARB, strengthen the link between monetary policy and lending rates.
It would also improve public understanding of loan pricing.
In a consultation paper released yesterday, the central bank noted that the transition would begin in 2027, at the earliest.
The prime rate has been set at 350 basis points above the benchmark interest rate since 2001.

Brent crude oil is currently at $68.29/bbl; ($68.65/bbl*).
Gold is at $4954/oz ($4992/oz*).
SA CDS 138bps*, Brazil 129bps* and Turkey 214bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.04%*, German bund at 2.75%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.05%*, SA's R2035 at 7.92%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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