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In the loop 12 June 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.69/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.67/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the MXN (+1.1%), HUF (+0.9%) and PLN (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.2%), KRW (-0.2%) and PHP (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.
 
  • US President Trump yesterday indicated that he intends to set unilateral tariff rates with US trading partners, ahead of a 9 July deadline to “reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies”.
  • Trump noted that he intends to send letters to trading partners in the next one-to-two weeks.
 
  • The ECB’s wage tracker, out yesterday, expects salaries to increase by 1.7% in Q4:25, down from the 5.4% peak in 2024.
  • The data underpins the ECB’s confidence that inflation is likely to stabilise at its 2% inflation target.
  • The central bank noted that “forward-looking information confirms that negotiated wage growth is set to ease”.
  • The central bank has cut the benchmark lending rate eight times (200 bps) in the current cutting cycle.
  • The ECB President Christine Lagarde noted last week that the bank is nearing the end of its easing cycle.
 
  • The UK’s Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance fell to -8% (a 10-month low) in May, from -3% in April.  
  • This deterioration came as the property market remains under pressure after a tax break for buyers expired.
  • RICS noted that sentiment across the UK property market remains subdued.
  • Ongoing uncertainty around global trade policies is also weighing on sentiment.
 
  • The UK monthly GDP for April, due today, is expected to have contracted 0.1% m/m, after having increased 0.2% m/m in March.
  • This contraction is expected on the back of President Trump’s announcement of tariffs.
  • While a trade deal has since been reached with the US, levies will still act as a drag on economic activity over the next year.
 
  • US PPI for May is expected to come in at 2.6% y/y, from 2.4% y/y in April.
  • On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.2% in May, after having declined by 0.5% in April.
 
  • Locally, mining production for April is on the cards today; production is expected to have declined by 4.0% y/y in April, following a 2.8% y/y decline in March.
  • Mining production increased by 3.5% m/m in March.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 6.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 28.6% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $69.51/bbl; ($69.77/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3374/oz ($3330/oz*).
  • SA CDS 187bps*, Brazil 151bps* and Turkey 291bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.42%*, German bund at 2.53%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.15%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.09%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 08h00: UK monthly GDP (April), industrial production (April), manufacturing production (April), visible trade balance (April)
  • 11h30: SA mining production (April)
  • 14h30: US PPI (May), initial jobless claims (7 June)
 

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