In the loop 15 April 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.82/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R18.86/$*).
EM currencies were largely down on Friday; the HUF (-1.5%), CLP (-1.4%) and PLN (-1.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

China’s GDP for Q1:24 is due for release tomorrow; growth is expected to have slowed in Q1:24.
The government has set an ambitious 5% growth target for this year.
Industrial production and retail sales data releases for March are also on the cards tomorrow.
Japan’s CPI for March is scheduled for release on Friday; core inflation is likely to have moderated to 2.7% y/y in March, from 2.8% y/y in February.
Japan’s trade balance for March is also due for release this week (Wednesday).

UK CPI for March is due out on Wednesday and is expected to have moderated to 3.1% y/y in March, from 3.4% y/y in February.
Headline inflation will probably fall further in April.
The UK jobs and wage data, out tomorrow, will likely provide further evidence that the labour market is cooling.
The Eurozone CPI for March (final estimate) is due out on Wednesday; headline and core inflation both fell slightly in March.

US retail sales for March, due out today, are likely to have remained subdued; companies have been reporting a persistent moderation in demand.
This is on the back of consumers struggling with higher prices and interest rates and have thus remained selective with their purchases.
The Empire manufacturing survey for April is also due out today; a significant improvement is expected.
The NAHB housing market index for April is on the cards today; home builder sentiment likely remained unchanged.
Housing starts and building permits for March are due out tomorrow; both are likely to have slowed.
Existing homes sales, due out on Thursday, will likely have declined in March given that it surged by more than expected in February.
The Fed’s Beige Book for April will be released on Wednesday and will likely describe activity, on balance, as increasing slightly.

Locally, the March CPI is due out on Wednesday and is expected to come in at 5.4% y/y, from 5.6% y/y in February.
Core CPI is expected at 4.9% y/y in March, from 5.0% y/y in February.
Retail sales for February are due out on Wednesday; sales are likely to have fallen further, by 1.3% y/y, following a decline of 2.1% y/y in January.
Retail sales are expected to have increased by 1.2% m/m in February, from a decline of 3.2% m/m in January.
Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.

Brent crude oil is currently at $90.06/bbl; ($90.45/bbl*).
Gold is at $2355/oz ($2344/oz*).
SA CDS 254bps*, Brazil 154bps* and Turkey 307bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.52%*, German bund at 2.35%*, SA 10-year generic at 12.11%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.71%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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