In the loop 09 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.45/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.51/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+2.1%), RUB (+0.9%) and PEN (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the MYR (-1.1%), CLP (-1.0%) and IDR (-0.9%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Iran war: both Iran and Israel signalled a conditional de-escalation in the war yesterday, indicating they would halt attacks, provided that the other side did the same.
However, they both warned of forceful retaliation if red lines, particularly related to Lebanon, were crossed.
Iran announced the end of its current military operations, while warning of a “more crushing” response to any renewed Israeli strikes.

China's trade performance strengthened in May, with both exports and imports growing more rapidly than expected.
This came on the back of strong global demand for AI-related hardware, which helped offset disruptions linked to the war in Iran.
Exports increased by more than 19% y/y in May, while imports surged by over 27% y/y, reflecting robust activity in both external and domestic demand.
China's trade surplus widened to $105.4bn, the largest since January.
The AI-driven technology boom continues to support growth across China's trade sector, manufacturing output and industrial profits, with semiconductors and computer-related products accounting for around half of export growth in April.

The NY inflation expectations survey showed that short-term inflation expectations eased slightly, with the one-year-ahead inflation expectations declining to 3.5% in May, from 3.6% in April.
Longer-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.1% over the next three years and 3.0% over the next five years.
The survey suggests that households continue to view the recent rise in inflation pressures as largely temporary, rather than indicative of a sustained acceleration in inflation.
Respondents to the survey expressed growing concern about their personal financial situations and future employment prospects.
Household finances outlook fell to lowest since October 2022, with spending growth expected to moderate amid worsening credit access and delinquencies.

The US NFIB small business optimism index for May is on the cards today and likely increased to 96.0 in May, from 95.9 in April.
Existing home sales for May, also due tomorrow, are expected to have increased by 1.1% m/m, following a 0.2% increase in April.
The trade deficit is expected to have compressed to $56.1bn in April, from a deficit of $60.3bn in March.
Goods exports likely increased across most product categories, while import growth was likely concentrated in capital goods.

Locally, GDP growth for Q1:26 is in the spotlight today and is expected to have increased by 0.3% q/q (sa), after having increased by 0.4% q/q (sa) in Q4:25.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 1.7% in Q1:26, after having increased 0.9% y/y in Q4:25.
The data, which largely predates the impact of the Iran war and concomitant oil price spike, will likely prove still relatively resilient.
Select sectors were supported by idiosyncratic factors in Q1:26, including the agricultural sector generally benefiting from favourable weather and the mining sector benefiting from elevated prices.
Others came under pressure from headwinds, such as punitive trade and electricity tariffs as well as rand strength weighing on the manufacturing sector.
The services sectors were likely still relatively resilient.
We foresee a slowdown in GDP growth after Q1:26 amid the protracted conflict in the Middle East and the resultant elevated fuel costs.

Oil prices fell yesterday after Iran reportedly ended military operations against Israel.
Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 53.6% year-to-date.
The gold price is down this morning, and up by 0.3% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $93.45/bbl; ($94.25/bbl*).
Gold is at $4333/oz ($4330/oz*).
SA CDS 132bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 242bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.55%*, German bund at 3.06%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.90%*, SA's R2035 at 8.72%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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