In the loop 11 June 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.69/$, after closing unchanged yesterday (R17.70/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.9%), PLN (+0.3%) and RON (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.5%), KRW (-0.9%) and CLP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

The US and China yesterday agreed on a framework to ease trade tensions.
No details about the framework were provided.
It is now up to the presidents of the two nations to approve and implement the deal.

The World Bank yesterday warned that this decade could see the weakest global growth since the 1960s due to trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
It noted that growth is on course to average just 2.5% this decade.
Further, the institution has cut its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 to 2.3% (the weakest in 17 years).
The World Bank too has lowered the growth forecasts for almost 70% of economies.
It cited slower growth in developing economies, low-income countries, the US, the Eurozone and Japan.
It further warned of risks, including trade restrictions, policy uncertainty, and financial stress, that could weigh on growth.

ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic yesterday remarked that the central bank could wait until September to discuss further rate cuts.
Vujcic noted the central bank as currently in a very good position; he added that it is thus worth waiting to get more data to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy.
By then, the central bank would have more clarity on how trade relationships have been developing.
The ECB is due to publish its updated forecasts at the 10-11 September policy meeting.
The ECB currently expects growth of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027.

The US May CPI will be in focus today and is likely to come in at 2.4% y/y, following a 2.3% y/y increase in April.
On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.2% in May, matching April’s increase.
Goods inflation was likely hit by tariffs in May as firms passed on tariff increases to consumers.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.9% y/y in May, from 2.8% y/y in April.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.81/bbl; ($66.87/bbl*).
Gold is at $3340/oz ($3321/oz*).
SA CDS 189bps*, Brazil 155bps* and Turkey 294bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.46%*, German bund at 2.52%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.12%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.07%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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