In the loop 29 January 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.65/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.89/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the MYR (+0.9%), PHP (+0.6%) and ZAR (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.0%), CLP (-0.7%) and HUF (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed today; the Nikkei and the Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.

Central Bank Watch: the US Fed has held interest rates steady, as widely expected.
Fed chair Jerome Powell cited sturdy employment numbers and slightly elevated inflation as reasons for holding off on a rate cut, for now.
President Trump has continued to pressure the Fed into cutting rates.
Trump-appointed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran dissented, favouring a 25 bps cut.
“Since last September, we have lowered our policy rate 75 bps, bringing it within a range of plausible estimates of neutral”, remarked Powell.
“This normalisation of our policy stance should help stabilise the labour market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2% once the effects of tariff increases have passed through”, said Powell.
“We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks”, he added.
Powell is due to step down as Fed chair in June this year when his term ends; Governor Christopher Waller is one of four on Trump's shortlist for Fed chair candidates.

US initial jobless claims for the week ending 24 January is due for release this afternoon.
The data is expected to continue showing a relatively low level of layoffs.
The four-week moving average of new applications dropped to 202k, a two-year low, in the week ended 17 January, with initial claims coming in at 200k.
Applications for jobless claim have been at or below 200k only a few times in recent years.
The US trade balance and factory orders for November are also due later today.

The European Commission will publish Eurozone economic sentiment data for January today.
Economic confidence is expected to come in higher, at 97.1, in January, up from 96.7 in December.
Both services and industrial confidence likely rose in January.
Consumer confidence improved more than expected in January, to -12.4, up from -13.2 in December.

Locally, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)'s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting concludes today.
The inflation prognosis has improved notably since the last MPC meeting in November, and the SARB is likely to lower its inflation forecast.
We see the balance of risks tilted towards another 25 bps rate cut, taking the repo rate to 6.5%.
However, the bank might still prefer to cut interest rates more gradually to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations are more credibly anchored at 3%.

PPI inflation for December is due for release this morning.
The PPI is expected to have increased 0.3% m/m in December, to 3.0% y/y – up from 2.9% y/y in November.

Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 13.9% year-to-date.
The gold price is up this morning, and up by 28.5% year-to-date; gold hit an all-time high overnight.

Brent crude oil is currently at $69.30/bbl; ($68.40/bbl*).
Gold is at $5551/oz ($5298/oz*).
SA CDS 135bps*, Brazil 131bps* and Turkey 217bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.86%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.18%*, SA's R2035 at 8.05%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF