In the loop 12 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.59/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.48/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+o.3%), TWD (+0.3%) and PEN (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-1.8%), HUF (-1.7%) and MXN (-1.0%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel commented yesterday that the ECB's new quarterly forecasts would partially incorporate the economic impact of the war in Iran.
Schnabel said that Eurozone inflation is projected to return to the central bank's 2% target over the medium term.
She warned, however, that the current geopolitical environment poses upside risks to inflation, particularly if shifts in energy prices prove persistent.
Schnabel urged policymakers to remain “vigilant” amid heightened volatility and uncertainty.
She nonetheless added that ECB policy is currently in a “good place”.

According to the UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Market Survey, the headline net balance for house prices deteriorated to -12% in February, from -10% in January.
Inquiries from new buyers and agreed sales saw notable declines in February.

The US trade balance for January is scheduled for release today.
The trade deficit is likely to have narrowed, to $66.0bn in January, from $70.3bn in December.
US housing starts and building permits data for January will be released today.
Housing starts are likely to have fallen by 4.5% m/m in January, after having increased by 6.2% m/m in December.
Building permits are also expected to have fallen in January, by 3.1% m/m.

Locally, the current account balance for Q4:25 is scheduled for release today; the deficit is expected to have swung into a surplus of 0.6% of GDP in Q4:25, from a deficit of 0.7% of GDP in Q3:25.
Mining production for January is also due; production is expected to have increased by 2.7% y/y in January, up from 2.5% y/y in December.
Manufacturing production for January is likely to have decreased by 0.1% y/y in January, after having fallen by 1.4% y/y in December.

The IEA yesterday confirmed the release of the largest emergency oil reserves on record, aimed at curbing surging prices while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
The announcement did little to calm volatile markets.
The oil price is up this morning after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters.
US President Trump yesterday commented that he believes that the war with Iran will end soon but he provided no specific timeline.
He noted that the US is “not finished yet” and must continue doing “more of the same”.

Brent crude oil is currently at $98.84/bbl; ($91.98/bbl*).
Gold is at $5146/oz ($5176/oz*).
SA CDS 149bps*, Brazil 130bps* and Turkey 253bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.22%*, German bund at 2.93%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.60%*, SA's R2035 at 8.46%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

11h00: SA current account balance (Q4:25)
11h30: SA mining production (January)
13h00: SA manufacturing production (January)
14h30: US trade balance (January), initial jobless claims (7 March), housing starts (January), building permits (January)

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