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In the loop 13 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.78/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.77/$*).
  • EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the CLP (-2.2%), ZAR (-1.7%) and BRL (-1.7%) were the biggest gainers; the COP was up by 0.5%.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Middle East war: Iran's new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has said that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed.
  • He stated that Iran would seek to keep the critical oil and gas transit route effectively shut, sustaining a choke point on global energy supplies that has already triggered a sharp surge in oil prices.
  • US President Trump commented that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is “of far greater interest and importance” to him than the impact of higher oil prices.
  • The defiant stance from both leaders suggests that the conflict in the Middle East is far from de-escalating after nearly two weeks of conflict.
  • Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, also outlined Tehran's conditions for a potential ceasefire, stating that Iran would require “firm international guarantees against future aggression,” along with reparations.
  • Amid surging oil prices, the conflict has also caused thousands of flight cancellations and disrupted the global flow of fertilizer and other goods.
 
  • Investors are sharply reducing expectations for interest rate cuts from the Fed this year, as the escalating crisis in the Middle East raises the risk of a renewed surge in inflation.
  • The Fed is scheduled to meet next week and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. 
  • The ECB is also expected to keep policy steady at its meeting next week. 
  • Both central banks are currently in their external communications blackout periods ahead of their respective interest rate decisions.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia appears poised to deliver a second consecutive rate increase as policymakers respond to renewed inflationary pressure stemming from higher energy prices.
  • The BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged next week. 
  • The key question for investors is whether policymakers will provide any guidance on how surging oil prices could influence the timing of the central bank's next rate hike.
 
  • The UK's monthly GDP release for January is expected to show that the economy started the year on a more positive footing.
  • GDP is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/min January, following a 0.1% m/m increase in December.
  • Industrial and manufacturing output data for January will also be released.
  • Industrial production is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m in January, after having declined by 0.9% m/m in December.
  • Manufacturing output is forecast to have increased by 0.2% m/m, following a 0.5% m/m decline in December.
 
  • The US Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, for January, is due for release today.
  • Monthly core PCE inflation was likely up 0.4% in m/m in January, matching December's increase.
  • Personal income is likely to have increased by 0.5% m/m in January, after having increased by 0.3% m/m in December.
  • Personal spending is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in January, down from 0.4% m/m in December.
  • The updated estimate of Q4:25 US GDP is also scheduled for release.
  • GDP is expected at 1.4% q/q (annualised) in Q4:25, from 4.4% q/q in Q3:25.
  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March is on the cards and is expected to have slipped to 54.6, from 56.6 in February.
 
  • Locally, it is a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 65.2% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 18.2% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $100.50/bbl; ($100.46/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $5109/oz ($5079/oz*).
  • SA CDS 156bps*, Brazil 134bps* and Turkey 263bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.26%*, German bund at 2.95%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.81%*, SA's R2035 at 8.67%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 09h00: UK monthly GDP (January), industrial production (January), manufacturing production (January), trade balance (January)
  • 12h00: Eurozone industrial production (January)
  • 14h30: US personal income and spending, core PCE (January), durable goods orders (January), GDP (Q4:25)
  • 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment (March), 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (March), JOLTS job openings (January)
 

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