In the loop 16 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.92/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R15.94/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MXN (+0.4%), RUB (+0.3%) and COP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.5%), CLP (-0.5%) and KRW (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC meeting minutes of the 27-28 January policy meeting is due on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, also on Wednesday.
Bank Indonesia is also likely to stay on hold, on Thursday.
The Philippines central bank may cut its overnight borrowing rate by 25 bps on Thursday.

Japan's CPI, scheduled for release on Friday, is expected at 1.6% y/y for January, from 2.1% y/y in December.

The UK labour market data for December is scheduled for release tomorrow.
Attention will then shift to the UK CPI report for January, due on Wednesday, which is expected to mark the beginning of a more pronounced decline in annual inflation over the course of the year.
The February composite PMI readings for both the Eurozone and the UK are due this week and are likely to signal continued economic expansion in both regions at the start of the year.
The ECB's indicator of negotiated wage rates, due on Friday, will provide the insight into pay settlements for Q4:25.
A broad-based moderation across wage growth measures is expected to have persisted, reinforcing the anticipated easing in domestic inflationary pressures.

The US Empire manufacturing index for February is on the cards tomorrow; the index is expected at 6.2 in February, from 7.7 in January.
The NAHB housing market index for January is also due; a slight increase to 38 is expected, from 37 in January.
Housing starts and building permits data for December are scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Improved sentiment among homebuilders likely supported housing starts in December.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, for December, is due for release on Friday.
Monthly core PCE inflation was likely up 0.3% in m/m in December, from 0.2% m/m in November.
The updated estimate of Q4:25 US GDP is also scheduled for release on Friday.
GDP is expected at 2.8% q/q (annualised) in Q4:25, from 4.4% q/q in Q3:25.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index tor February is due out on Friday and is expected to have remained at 57.3 in February.
Consumers remain anxious about labour market conditions, which may keep overall sentiment constrained.

Locally, Stats SA releases the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q4:25 on Tuesday; the unemployment rate fell to 31.90% in Q3:25, from 33.2% in Q2:25.
The January CPI is due for release on Wednesday and is expected to have moderated to 3.4% y/y, from 3.6% y/y in December.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.1%, after having increased by 0.2% in December.
Core CPI is projected at 3.3% y/y in January, matching December's.
The December retail sales data, also scheduled for release on Wednesday, may show sales growth of 3.1% y/y, down from a 3.5% y/y increase in November.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.77/bbl; ($67.75/bbl*).
Gold is at $4987/oz ($5042/oz*).
SA CDS 138bps*, Brazil 129bps* and Turkey 216bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.04%*, German bund at 2.75%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.08%*, SA's R2035 at 7.94%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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