In the loop 08 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R15.99/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R15.99/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+0.4%), TWD (+0.4%) and RUB (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-0.3%), MXN (-0.2%) and ZAR (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Iran war: The breakdown of the earlier US-Iran MoU and the resumption of hostilities have left both sides hardening their positions.
Iranian officials continued to reject US pressure and sanctions, while President Trump maintained that Washington possessed significant leverage through its control of maritime routes and economic pressure on Iran.

Japan's economy expanded by an annualised 1.4% y/y in Q2:26, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 1.1% y/y and from 1.9% y/y in Q1:26.
Growth was largely supported by government spending and net trade, while a smaller-than-previously estimated decline in business investment also contributed to the upward revision.
The stronger final GDP reading reinforces the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its policy meeting later this month.

UK retail sales growth slowed sharply in August, suggesting that consumer demand lost momentum as the boost from exceptionally warm weather earlier in the summer faded.
According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), total retail sales increased by 0.7% y/y, down from 1.3% y/y in July and well below the 12-month average growth rate of 1.6%.
Like-for-like sales rose by 0.5% y/y in August, following a 1.0% y/y increase in July.
Food sales remained the driver in August, increasing by 2.6% y/y, supported by continued spending on food and drink during the warm weather and holiday period.
The data points to softer underlying consumer demand heading into the autumn, with retailers facing the combination of subdued spending and rising operating costs.

The US NFIB small business optimism index for August, scheduled for release today, likely slipped to 99.3, from 99.8 in July.
Small-business sentiment could weaken amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices.
The NFIB's August jobs report also pointed to some softening in labour market conditions, with job openings, hiring intentions and compensation plans all declining.

Locally, GDP growth for Q2:26 is in the spotlight today and is expected to have decreased by 0.1% q/q (sa), after having increased by 0.5% q/q (sa) in Q1:26.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 1.3% in Q2:26, after having increased by 1.9% y/y in Q1:26.

President Cyril Ramaphosa yesterday in his weekly newsletter focused on the need to strengthen the South African Police Service (SAPS), restore public confidence in policing, and root out corruption and criminal infiltration within the criminal justice system.
Ramaphosa stressed that the actions of corrupt and/or incompetent officers should not overshadow the service of the vast majority of SAPS members.
He acknowledged that public confidence in the police remains weak and argued that trust must be earned through effective responses, proper investigations, and the successful prosecution of criminals.
Ramaphosa noted that government is seeking to strengthen SAPS capacity through Project 11,000, with another 5,500 constables due to enter training.
He also placed greater emphasis on merit-based recruitment, integrity and psychometric testing, improved crime intelligence, detective and forensic capabilities, and greater use of technology.

Oil prices edged higher yesterday with investors warning of a renewed supply crunch, as hostilities between the US and Iran exacerbated supply concerns.
Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 60.8% year-to-date.
The gold price is up this morning, and down by 2.4% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $97.77/bbl; ($97.00/bbl*).
Gold is at $4422/oz ($4404/oz*).
SA CDS 115bps*, Brazil 114bps* and Turkey 218bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.78%*, German bund at 3.38%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.77%*, SA's R2035 at 8.56%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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