Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities Enablement Lab
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 17 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.33/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.27/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+0.3%), PHP (+0.2%) and THB (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.8%), PLN (-0.4%) and CLP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: there has been no breakthrough towards a comprehensive ceasefire; tensions in the Gulf, Red Sea and Yemen remain high.
  • The war continues to pose significant risks to global energy markets, trade routes and inflation prospects worldwide.
 
  • Central bank watch: the US FOMC raised the Fed funds rate by 25 bps yesterday, marking its first rate increase since July 2023 and the first policy decision under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. 
  • The decision was unanimous, reflecting policymakers' increased concern that inflation is proving more persistent amid strong economic activity, higher energy prices and other cost pressures. 
  • The Fed indicated that further tightening might be required to achieve a timely return of inflation to its 2% target.
  • The bank stressed that future decisions would remain dependent on incoming data and the evolving balance of risks. 
  • Updated projections showed that most officials expect at least one additional rate increase this year, which would take the policy rate to 4.00-4.25%.
  • Inflation is now projected to return to the 2% target only in 2029, a year later than previously anticipated.
  • Warsh avoided committing the Fed to a predetermined sequence of hikes but indicated that further tightening remains possible if inflation does not show sufficient progress. 
 
  • The BOE is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today.
  • However, policymakers are likely to retain a cautious and hawkish tone given that inflation remains above target and energy prices are rising again.
  • Investors will keep a close eye on the vote split for signs of whether support for further tightening is growing within the Monetary Policy Committee.
 
  • Eurozone CPI of August (final estimate) is scheduled for release today and is likely to come in at 3.3% y/y, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 2.9% y/y July.
  • On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have remained unchanged at 0.4% in August (from the previous estimate), following a 0.2% increase in July.
 
  • The US NAHB housing market index fell to 32 in September, from 35 in August.
  • The data indicates renewed deterioration in homebuilder confidence.
  • Builders cited higher mortgage rates, rising material and labour costs, persistent labour shortages and tighter lending conditions as key factors weighing on demand and construction activity.
  • The deterioration was broad-based, with the index measuring current sales conditions falling to 35, while sales expectations for the next six months declined to 37.
 
  • US housing starts for August, out today, likely increased by 6.7% m/m (to 1,320k), after July's 12.4% m/m decrease (to 1,239k).
  • Building permits are expected to have declined by 1.5% m/m in August, after having increased by 4.3% m/m in July.
 
  • Locally, the Q3:26 BER consumer confidence index is due out today; the index fell to -19 (its weakest level since early 2025) in Q2:26, from -7 in Q1:26.
  • This came on the back of the Iran war-related fuel price shock squeezing household budgets and undermining spending intentions.
  • Recent indicators suggest that some of these pressures eased in Q3:26.
  • However, households are still facing higher fuel and energy costs than at the start of the year.
  • In addition, concerns about the global outlook continue to weigh on spending.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 73.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 0.5% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $105.60/bbl; ($105.83/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4295/oz ($4263/oz*).
  • SA CDS 118bps*, Brazil 112bps* and Turkey 236bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 5.02%*, German bund at 3.50%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.95%*, SA's R2035 at 8.72%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 10h00: SA BER consumer confidence index (Q3:26)
  • 11h00: Eurozone CPI (August - final)
  • 13h00: UK BOE interest rate decision – no change expected
  • 14h30: US initial jobless claims (12 September), housing starts (August), building permits (August)
 

Read PDF