In the loop 06 May 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.52/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.66/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+1.1%), ZAR (+1.1%) and BRL (+1.1%) were the biggest gainers; the RON (-0.7%), THB (-%) 0.4and IDR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: yesterday was dominated by renewed clashes around the Strait of Hormuz, alongside efforts to stabilise a fragile ceasefire.
Iranian missiles and drones were intercepted for a second consecutive day by UAE air defences.
Tehran denied responsibility for the attacks.
Iranian forces challenged US and allied naval escorts, even as Washington declared “Operation Epic Fury” over, and narrowed its focus to the “Project Freedom” mission in the Strait of Hormuz.

ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau yesterday noted that the central bank does not yet see sufficient evidence that rising oil prices are feeding through to broader inflation to justify a rate hike.
He emphasised that, should such second-round effects emerge, the ECB stands ready to act decisively to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.
For now, however, there are limited signs of this.
He also recently stressed that the ECB should strike a balance between caution and a willingness to act “without hesitation” when needed.

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman highlighted that consumer fraud and scams are posing growing risks to the financial system.
She noted that nearly every instance of fraud ultimately involves a bank account or a payment linked to one.
Bowman added that regulators are actively considering ways to strengthen efforts to combat consumer fraud.
Banks are continuing to make substantial investments in security measures and consumer education.

US new home sales increased more than expected in March, by 7.4% m/m, albeit down from an 8.9% m/m increase in February.
Sales increased to annualised pace of 682,000 in March, from 635,000 in February.
The median price of a new home fell to $387,400 in March, from $409,000 in February.
The rise in sales suggests that the gradual improvement in affordability since mid-2025 is beginning to generate stronger demand.
Homebuilders have been using a mix of incentives and price cuts to underpin market activity.

The US ISM Services PMI slipped to 53.6 (a five-month low) in April, from 54.0 in March.
Despite the slippage, the index remains above the three-year average.
The slippage came on the back of slowing orders, while input prices remained sharply higher.

The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings slipped to 6,866k in March, from an upwardly revised 6,922k in February.
The hiring rate increased to 3.5% in March, after dropping to 3.1% in February.
Job openings were noted in the transportation and warehousing as well as the information and leisure and hospitality sectors.
The ADP private sector payrolls for April are scheduled for release today; private sector payrolls are likely to have increased by 120k in Apil, after having increased by 62k in March.
The data comes ahead of the non-farm payrolls on Friday, and may have increased by 65k in April, after having increased by 178k in March.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.3%.

Locally, the industry-wide PMI for April is due out today; the index is currently in expansion at 50.8.

Brent crude oil is currently at $108.82/bbl; ($109.87/bbl*).
Gold is at $4651/oz ($4556/oz*).
SA CDS 155bps**, Brazil 119bps* and Turkey 244bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.42%*, German bund at 3.06%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.96%*, SA's R2035 at 8.81%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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