In the loop 25 November 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.06/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R18.11/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the IDR (+0.3%), THB (+0.2%) and PHP (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-3.0%), CLP (-1.2%) and HUF (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to deliver another large interest rate cut on Wednesday as it seeks to arrest the downturn in this economy.
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka is also likely to cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday.
The Bank of Korea is largely expected to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday.
The Central Bank of Nigeria is set to hike rates to contain inflationary pressures.

China’s industrial profits, due on Wednesday, likely fell at a faster pace in the first 10 months of the year.

Eurozone inflation for October, due on Friday, likely increased to above the ECB’s 2% inflation target in November.
CPI is expected to come in at 2.2% y/y in November, on the back of higher fuel costs, from 2.0% y/y in October.
The ECB’s October report on monetary developments in the region is due on Thursday.
The credit impulse for households and non-financial corporations rose to 0.5% of GDP in September, from 0.0% in August.
Several countries’ GDP data releases for Q3:24 are on the cards this week.
UK mortgage approvals are scheduled for release on Friday.
Uncertainty ahead of the 30 October budget may have led some potential buyers to delay applying for a mortgage.

The US Conference Board consumer confidence index for November, due out tomorrow, likely improved to 111.8, from 108.7 in October.
US new homes sales for October are also due out tomorrow; a decline is expected in October, following September’s surge as mortgage rates rose last month.
The US Q3:24 GDP (second estimate), out on Wednesday, is expected to come in at 2.8% q/q in Q3:24, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 3.0% q/q in Q2:24.
Investors will keep an eye on the US FOMC meeting minutes of the 6-7 November policy meeting on Wednesday.
Policymakers cut the Fed funds rate by 25 bps in a move widely expected.
Personal income and spending for October are also scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Fed will keep an eye on the core PCE deflator, which is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in October, following a 0.2% m/m increase in September.
Durable goods orders for October, due on Thursday, are expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in October, following a 0.7% m/m decline in September.
Durable goods excluding transportation likely moderated slightly in October.

Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for September is scheduled for release tomorrow; the index slipped to 112.8 in August.
The October PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected at -0.2% y/y, from 1.0% y/y in September.
The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for October are due out on Friday.
PSCE is likely to come in at 4.8% y/y in October, from 4.63% y/y in September.
The October trade balance is scheduled for release on Thursday; a trade surplus of R3.3bn is expected, from R12.8bn in September.
The monthly Budget balance data for October is also on the cards on Friday; the budget deficit came in at R4.4bn in September.

Brent crude oil is currently at $74.74/bbl; ($75.17/bbl*).
Gold is at $2672/oz ($2716/oz*).
SA CDS 187bps*, Brazil 154bps* and Turkey 259bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.35%*, German bund at 2.24%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.13%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.16%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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