In the loop 21 April 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.35/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.37/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.4%), COP (+0.4%) and BRL (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.8%), ARS (-0.8%) and CLP (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.

Iran war: Iran has hardened its stance on negotiations, saying that no decision had been made to participate in further peace talks, as proposed in Pakistan.
Iran also reiterated that the US blockade of Iranian ports was undermining diplomacy.
At the same time, Iran reasserted military control over the Strait of Hormuz, reversing an earlier announcement that the strait would remain open.
It warned that unrestricted passage would not resume while Iranian shipping remained blocked.
As a result, commercial traffic through the strait slowed sharply.

ECB Governing Council member Alvaro Santos Pereira said yesterday that the full economic impact of the war has not yet emerged.
This underscores the need for the ECB to remain focused on incoming data and ready to act if inflation shows signs of spiralling higher.
He noted that economic growth, while modest at around 1%, was resilient before the crisis.
Pereira added that policymakers are still evaluating how the war in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are affecting Europe, stressing that preventing second-round inflation effects will be critical.
The ECB will meet in two weeks and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, for now.

The UK February labour market data will be released today, with annual regular private sector pay growth in the three months to February expected to slow slightly, to 3.2% y/y, from 3.3%.
The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 5.2%, in February.
Today's data will reflect a labour market that might have been turning the corner before the outbreak of the Iran war.

Upcoming US data should offer further clues on how households and businesses are coping with higher energy costs.
March retail sales, due for release today, are expected to have increased by 1.4% m/m, after having increased by 0.6% m/m in February.
Higher gasoline prices likely boosted the headline figure.
Business inventories for February today are forecast to have increased by 0.3% m/m, after a 0.1% m/m increase in January.

Locally, the March SACCI business confidence index is due out today; the confidence index fell to 131.4 in January, from 133.2 in December.
SACCI noted in January that the confidence level was driven largely by financial and external factors, including strong overseas tourist arrivals, high global precious metal prices, rising JSE share prices, and robust new vehicle sales, rather than a broad-based improvement in real economic activity.
On a m/m basis, weaker manufacturing activity, lower merchandise export volumes and softer vehicle sales weighed on confidence.

Brent crude oil is currently at $94.31/bbl; ($95.48/bbl*).
Gold is at $4786/oz ($4820/oz*).
SA CDS 146bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 231bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.25%*, German bund at 2.98%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.50%*, SA's R2035 at 8.32%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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