In the loop 05 November 2025

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R17.49/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.50/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ZAR (-1.2%), MXN (-0.9%) and CLP (-0.8%) were the biggest losers; the ARS (+1.2%), PHP (+0.5%) and INR (+0.1%) gained the most.
Asian equity markets are mixed; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Central bank watch: the Swedish Riksbank, Brazil’s central bank (BCB) and the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will decide on rates today.
The Riksbank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged, at 1.75%.
The BCB will likely keep the Selic target rate unchanged, at 15% – the tightest monetary stance in almost two years.
While the inflation outlook in Brazil is improving, risk factors might keep the BCB cautious.
The NBP is expected to cut its base rate by 25bps, to 4.25%, but the decision is likely to be a close call between a cut and remaining on hold.

China’s Ministry of Finance will continue to suspend its 24% tariff on US goods for a year on 10 November when the current suspension expires.
The 10% tariff on US goods, which currently applies, will remain in place.
The statement also noted that China would "cease implementing the additional tariff measures"; this applies to retaliatory tariffs on US farm goods including soybeans, imposed in March.
The Ministry says the move will “foster a stable and healthy relationship with the US”.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang criticised trade barriers at the opening of the annual China International Import Expo in Shanghai today.
Li said that “unilateral and protectionist measures have had a severe impact on the international economic and trade order” and added that China will promote stable global supply chains.
He touted China as a growing market for global companies, noting that China will focus on “expanding domestic demand, especially on boosting consumption”.
His comments echo elements of the government’s next five-year plan, starting in 2026, announced in Beijing last week.

China’s RatingDog services PMI remained in expansion in October.
The services PMI came in at 52.6, down slightly from 52.9 in September.
The composite RatingDog PMI declined to 51.8 in October, from 52.5 in September.

Eurozone PPI for September is due out today.
Producer prices likely remained in deflation; the PPI is expected at -0.2% y/y in September, after -0.6% y/y in August.
The PPI is expected to have remained flat m/m, after declining 0.3% m/m in August.

The US ADP employment report for October will be a key focus today.
Private sector non-farm payrolls are expected to have increased by 30k, after declining by 32k in September.
The ISM services PMI is likely to show activity expanding at a similar pace to the previous month.
US MBA mortgage applications for the final week of October will also be released today.
The US government shutdown, now in its fifth week, continues to delay the release of key official data.
This has amplified the importance of private sector data to gauge the state of the US economy.

Brent crude oil is currently at $64.46/bbl; ($64.44/bbl*).
Gold is at $3974/oz ($3932/oz*).
SA CDS 155bps*, Brazil 142bps* and Turkey 248bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.07%*, German bund at 2.65%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.95%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.82%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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