In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.82/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.78/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ZAR (+0.8%), BRL (+0.7%) and RUB (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the IDR (-0.3%), CLP (-0.3%) and TWD (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• Central bank watch: The Bank of Korea kept its main interest rate unchanged, at 3.0%, today.
• The National Bank of Poland will likely keep its benchmark interest rate at 5.75%.

• The Fed’s Beige Book was generally upbeat; however, it noted some uncertainties relating to the incoming administration's policies.
• The Fed’s Beige Book highlighted “slight to modest” growth in the US economy by the end of 2024.
• The Beige Book showed that employment improved, with half of the 12 Fed districts reporting a slight increase in hiring.
• “Several service industries, notably healthcare, continued to see job growth”.

• New York Fed President John Williams commented yesterday that the US economy is once again showing signs of resilience.
• Williams expressed confidence that US inflation would continue to moderate in the coming months.
• He added that the path of monetary policy would depend on all incoming data in the run-up to policy meetings.

• The US NAHB housing market index for January is due for release today.
• Sentiment likely slipped in January, to 45, from 46 in December.

• UK GDP data for November is due out today and will likely show that this economy has gathered pace.
• Growth is expected to come in at 0.2% m/m in November, after having increased by 0.1% m/m in October.
• Consumers have thus far shown restraint despite healthy wage gains.
• However, while retail sales climbed in November, business and consumer sentiment remained subdued.
• Household spending is likely to support economic activity more meaningfully in the coming months.

• Investors will keep an eye on the ECB’s December monetary policy meeting minutes today.
• Following the December policy meeting, policymakers suggested more easing as likely.
• Several policymakers recently indicated that the central bank would likely continue with its rate-cutting cycle this year.

• Locally, Stats SA will release the electricity production and consumption data for November.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 10.0% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 2.7% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $82.07/bbl; ($82.03/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2694/oz ($2692/oz*).
• SA CDS 197bps*, Brazil 186bps* and Turkey 270bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.65%*, German bund at 2.56%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.47%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.50%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

• 09h00: UK monthly GDP (November), industrial production (November), manufacturing production (November), visible trade balance (November)
• 12h00: Eurozone trade balance (November)
• 13h00: SA electricity production and consumption (November)
• 14h30: Eurozone ECB MPC meeting minutes (11-12 December)
• 15h30: US retail sales (December), initial jobless claims (11 January)
• 17h00: US business inventories (November), NAHB housing market index (January)

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