In the loop 16 April 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R19.01/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R19.06/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PHP (+0.5%), MXN (+0.3%) and INR (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.3%), ZAR (-1.1%) and PLN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Canada is largely expected to hold its overnight rate steady, at 2.75%.

China’s GDP growth overshot expectations in Q1:25, at 5.4% y/y, from 5.0% y/y in Q4:24.
This improvement was driven by an increase in exports to the US ahead of new tariffs.
However, growth is set to slow as the trade war escalates.
Industrial output increased by 7.7% y/y in March, the fastest growth since June 2021.
Retail sales increased by 5.9% y/y in March, the best pace since December 2023.
China’s home price decline eased in March on the back of support policies.
The property market has become a priority in China’s efforts to stabilise demand.

UK CPI for March is expected to have eased marginally, to 2.7% y/y, from 2.8% y/y.
On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.4% in March, matching February’s increase.
The inflation data, as well as yesterday’s wage data, will be closely monitored by the BOE.
The Eurozone final release of CPI for March is likely to come in at 2.2% y/y, from 2.3% y/y in February.

The US NAHB housing market index for April is also due for release; sentiment likely slipped further, to 38 in April, from 39 in March.
Homebuilders have recently warned that higher tariffs by the Trump administration will likely drive up costs in the industry.
Retail sales are likely to have increased by 1.4% m/m in March, after having increased by 0.2% m/m in February.
Sales, excluding autos, are likely to have increased by 0.4% m/m in March, following a 0.3% m/m increase in February.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the US economy and monetary policy later today.
Investors are keeping an eye out for clues on future policy moves by the Fed.

Locally, February retail sales are on the cards today; retail sales likely increased by 6.6% y/y in February, following a 7.0% y/y increase in January.
Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 13.9% year-to-date.
The gold price is up this morning, and up by 25.4% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $64.29/bbl; ($64.67/bbl*).
Gold is at $3289/oz ($3221/oz*).
SA CDS 257bps*, Brazil 194bps* and Turkey 347bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.32%*, German bund at 2.53%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.94%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.91%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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