In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.64/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.66/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PEN (+0.4%), ARS (+0.4%) and CLP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.7%), HUF (-0.4%) and ZAR (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.  

• US President Trump yesterday welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the White House for talks on bringing an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
• President Trump noted that the talks were successful; European leaders also joined the talks at the White House.
• President Zelenskyy noted that Ukraine is “ready for a trilateral”; he added that Ukraine still needs support from both the US and European allies.
• President Trump has called Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin arranging a summit with Ukraine, to be followed by a trilateral, including the US.
• Security guarantees for Ukraine will be worked out over the next few days.

• Investors are keeping a close eye on comments from the Fed this week.
• The minutes of the July FOMC meeting are on the cards tomorrow.
• The minutes will likely offer insight into how Fed policymakers assessed tariff pass-through, and their risk management approach to policymaking.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
• Powell is expected to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework on Friday — the strategy which the Fed will be using to achieve its inflation and employment goals.
• Powell may also offer some clues about the Fed’s thinking ahead of the September policy meeting.
• He may also announce an adjustment to the Fed’s statement on longer-term goals.

• The US housing starts and building permits for July are due out tomorrow.
• Both housing starts and building permits are likely to have slipped in July.
• Housing starts are likely to have slipped to 1,297k (down 1.8% m/m), from 1,321k in June.
• Building permits for July are expected to slip to 1,386k (down 0.5% m/m), from 1,393k in June.  
• US existing home sales for July are due out on Thursday; existing home sales are expected to have declined by 0.3% m/m in July.

• Locally, there are no economic data releases scheduled for releases today.

• Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 11.3% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 27.3% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $66.18/bbl; ($65.85/bbl*).
• Gold is at $3340/oz ($3332/oz*).
• SA CDS 172bps*, Brazil 138bps* and Turkey 267bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.33%*, German bund at 2.76%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.72%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.62%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 10h00: Eurozone current account balance (June)
• 14h30: US housing starts (July), building permits (July)

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