In the loop 07 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.71/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.57/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the CZK (+1.5%), RUB (+0.3%) and RON (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.8%), TWD (-0.4%) and ZAR (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the central banks of Australia, South Korea and Malaysia will be meeting this week to decide on rates.
All are expected to keep interest rates steady as they await further information on domestic demand and external pressures.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut its benchmark interest rate to support growth.

China’s CPI and PPI data for June will be released this week.
CPI is expected to have declined for a fifth month, and factory-gate prices to have continued their extended decline.

The UK monthly GDP for May, due on Friday, is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m, after having contracted by 0.3% m/m in April.
The contraction in April was driven by a number of factors, including a drop in exports to the US after big tariff announcements at the start of that month.
German industrial production for May is due out later today; production may have stalled in May, following a decline in April.

The 90-day delay in President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on Wednesday 9 July.
Negotiations are continuing with US trading partners.
President Trump has noted that any country aligning with BRICS nations’ “anti-American” policies would face an additional 10% tariff.
The US FOMC meeting minutes of the 17-18 June meeting will be released on Wednesday.
The minutes are likely to reflect a divided committee on interest rates.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week noted that the Fed funds rate likely would have been lower, had it not been for the impact of tariffs this summer.
The US NFIB small business optimism index for June, due out tomorrow, is expected to have slipped, albeit marginally, to 98.7, from 97.8 in May.

Locally, the SARB’s gross and net reserves for June are scheduled for release today.
Gross reserves were $68.12bn in May, and net reserves $64.8bn.
Manufacturing production for May is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have declined by 1.4% y/y in May, after having fallen by 6.3% y/y in April.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.3% in May, following a 1.9% increase in April.

Brent crude oil is currently at $68.04/bbl; ($68.30/bbl*).
Gold is at $3306/oz ($3337/oz*).
SA CDS 183bps*, Brazil 141bps* and Turkey 279bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.34%**, German bund at 2.60%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.79%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.72%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

** Denotes Thursday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF