In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is trading at R15.97/$ this morning, after closing stronger on Friday (R15.96/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+0.5%), TWD (+0.4%) and RUB (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.4%), CZK (-0.3%) and HUF (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

• Iran war: Tehran will reportedly announce a new shipping route agreed on with Oman over the next few days.
• The plan, however, also includes the declaration of a restricted zone controlled by Iran near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran retaliated with strikes on US-affiliated vessels after the US military sank three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday.

• Central bank watch: the ECB will decide on rates on Thursday against the backdrop of re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and pressures in the bond market.
• A hike of 25 bps is widely expected; markets will likely focus on any signals regarding another possible move at the December meeting.

• Eurozone GDP data for Q2:26 is due out today.
• Previous estimates saw real GDP expand by 0.4% q/q in Q2:26; growth was likely 1.0% y/y in Q2:26.
• Today also sees the release of Eurozone Sentix investor confidence for September.

• A key focus this week will be US CPI data for August, released on Friday.
• Headline inflation is expected to remain broadly stable, at 3.4% y/y in August.
• Any sign of increased inflation pressures will likely spur expectations for a hike at the Fed's upcoming meeting.
• US markets are closed today for Labor Day.

• Japan's leading and coincident indices for July signalled an improvement in economic conditions.
• The leading index rose to 117.9 in July, up from a downwardly revised 116.2 in June.
• The coincident index increased to 120.6 in July, from an upwardly revised 118.9 in June.

• Locally, the SARB's gross and net reserves for August are scheduled for release today. 
• In July, gross reserves slipped to $73.45bn, from $74.12bn in June.
• Net reserves increased in July, to $71.76bn, from $71.34bn in June.

• Tomorrow sees the release of Q2:26 GDP data.
• Real GDP growth likely slowed to around 1.2% y/y in Q2:26, from 1.9% y/y in Q1:26.
• The balance of payments data for Q2:26 is due out on Thursday.
• The current account balance might have swung into a deficit after a surplus of 2.4% of GDP was recorded in Q1:26.
• Mining and manufacturing production figures for July are also due on Thursday.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 60.0% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 2.0% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $97.37/bbl; ($96.28/bbl*).
• Gold is at $4406/oz ($4430/oz*).
• SA CDS 115bps*, Brazil 114bps* and Turkey 218bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.78%*, German bund at 3.34%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.72%*, SA's R2035 at 8.51%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

• 08h00: SA gross and net reserves (August)
• 10h30: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence (September)
• 11h00: Eurozone GDP (Q2:26), employment (Q2:26 – final)
• China foreign reserves (August)

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